{"id":12154,"date":"2015-08-12T04:21:54","date_gmt":"2015-08-12T08:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12154"},"modified":"2015-08-12T04:21:54","modified_gmt":"2015-08-12T08:21:54","slug":"desperate-times-desperate-acts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/12\/desperate-times-desperate-acts\/","title":{"rendered":"Desperate times, desperate acts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A sharp fall in global trade is the most likely reason for China&#8217;s decision to devalue the Yuan &mdash; not aspirations for CNY to be considered a reserve currency.<\/p>\n<p>There are clear signs that global trade is contracting. Shipbrokers Harper Petersen&#8217;s Harpex weekly index of charter rates for container vessels fell 9 percent in July and August is following a similar path. Reduced demand for container shipping reflects a sharp fall-off in international trade in manufactured goods.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Harpex Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-12-harpex.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Harpex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Tyler Durden from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-08-08\/chinese-trade-crashes-and-why-yuan-devaluation-now-just-matter-time\" target=\"_blank\">zerohedge.com<\/a> highlighted China&#8217;s falling exports last week (August 8):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Goldman breaks down the geographic slowdown:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Exports to the US contracted 1.3% yoy, <strong>down from the +12.0% yoy in June<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Exports to Japan fell 13.0% yoy in July, vs -6.0%yoy in June<\/li>\n<li>Exports to the Euro area went <strong>down 12.3% yoy<\/strong>, vs -3.4% yoy in June.<\/li>\n<li>Exports to ASEAN grew 1.4% yoy, vs +8.4% yoy in June<\/li>\n<li> Exports to Hong Kong declined 14.9% yoy, vs -0.5% yoy in June.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Slower sequential export growth likely contributed to the slowdown in industrial production growth in July. Weaker export growth is likely putting more downward pressure on the currency, though whether the government will allow some modest depreciation to happen remains to be seen.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Durden presciently concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>As global trade continues to disintegrate, and as a desperate China finally joins the global currency war, <strong>it will have no choice but to devalue next<\/strong>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-08-11\/1997-asian-currency-crisis-redux\" target=\"_blank\">Michael Leibowitz at 720Global.com<\/a> also warns of the destabilizing effect carry trades may have on any adjustment: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The &#8220;one-off&#8221; adjustment has now become two&#8230;. this devaluation is likely not a one-time event but rather <strong>the beginning of an ongoing and persistent depreciation of the CNY versus the USD<\/strong>. The embedded USD short position within the [estimated $2Tn to $3Tn] carry trades will begin to result in losses and margin calls as the USD appreciates versus the CNY, thus forcing investors to liquidate some of their positions. These trades, which took years to amass, could unwind abruptly and exert an influence of historic magnitude on markets and economies.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2015-08-11\/1997-asian-currency-crisis-redux\" target=\"_blank\">1997 Asian Currency Crisis Redux | Zerohedge<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A sharp fall in global trade is the most likely reason for China&#8217;s decision to devalue the Yuan &mdash; not aspirations for CNY to be considered a reserve currency. There are clear signs that global trade is contracting. Shipbrokers Harper Petersen&#8217;s Harpex weekly index of charter rates for container vessels fell 9 percent in July &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/12\/desperate-times-desperate-acts\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Desperate times, desperate acts&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,7],"tags":[606,721,1018,1652,2976,3731],"class_list":["post-12154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-forex","tag-carry-trades","tag-cny","tag-devaluation","tag-harpex-index","tag-rmb","tag-yuan"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Desperate times, desperate acts - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Desperate times, desperate acts - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A sharp fall in global trade is the most likely reason for China&#8217;s decision to devalue the Yuan &mdash; not aspirations for CNY to be considered a reserve currency. 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Export growth picked up to 9.9% yoy in September, up from 2.7% yoy in August, and better than consensus estimate fo 5.5% yoy....... via China\u2019s export growth accelerated in September.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11998,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/30\/global-economy-no-surprises\/","url_meta":{"origin":12154,"position":1},"title":"Global economy: No surprises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 30, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The global economy faces deflationary pressures as the vast credit expansion of the last 4 decades comes to an end. Commodity prices test their 2009 lows. Breach of support at 100 on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index would warn of further price falls. The dramatic fall in bulk commodity\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"$60 Trillion Global Credit","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-credit.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":18853,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/09\/10\/china-exports-fall-despite-weaker-yuan\/","url_meta":{"origin":12154,"position":2},"title":"China: Exports fall despite weaker Yuan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Reuters says that export orders are falling and the contraction is expected to worsen in coming months: Beijing is widely expected to announce more support measures in coming weeks to avert the risk of a sharper economic slowdown as the United States ratchets up trade pressure...... On Friday, the central\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":684,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/06\/harpex-container-index-stalls\/","url_meta":{"origin":12154,"position":3},"title":"Harpex Container Index stalls","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 6, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The Harpex Index of container ship rates is retreating. Failure of support at 600 would warn of another test of the 2010 low. The index, calculated by Harper Petersen ship brokers, reflects international demand for container vessels and is a useful measure of international trade in light manufactured goods. Falling\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20572,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/23\/china-headed-for-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":12154,"position":4},"title":"China headed for recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 23, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"China will not set a GDP growth target for the year ahead, the first time since the practice began in 1990. From Trivium China: All it took was a once-in-a-century global pandemic and economic crisis. The Chinese government finally dropped its annual GDP growth target, long the foundation for economic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5615,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/28\/chinas-rail-cargo-volume-declined-further-in-august\/","url_meta":{"origin":12154,"position":5},"title":"China\u2019s rail cargo volume declined further in August","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"by Zarathustra Rail cargo volume growth fell further from -8.2% yoy in July to -9.2% yoy in August, worst since the financial crisis. Cargo volume transported by the railways amounted to 304 million tonnes in August 2012, slightly below 305 million tonnes in July. via China\u2019s rail cargo volume declined\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12154","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12154"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12154\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12154"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12154"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12154"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}