{"id":12053,"date":"2015-07-14T00:07:26","date_gmt":"2015-07-14T04:07:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=12053"},"modified":"2015-07-14T00:07:26","modified_gmt":"2015-07-14T04:07:26","slug":"bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank share prices tipped to decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

Chris Joye at the AFR warns that increased capital requirements could cause an 18.5 percent fall in bank stocks:<\/p>\n

….APRA warns that because the report makes several assumptions that are unrealistically favourable to the majors, and the majors’ CET1 ratios have fallen behind global peers since June 2014, it believes they “are likely to need to increase their capital ratios by at least 200 basis points \u2026 to be comfortably positioned in the fourth quartile”.<\/p>\n

In dollar terms, UBS’ No. 1 ranked analyst Jonathon Mott estimates that this represents a CET1 shortfall of about $24 billion today, accounting for the extra equity the majors have started sourcing since June 2014 (the short-fall would otherwise have been $30 billion). That’s consistent with the lower bound of estimates I previously canvassed here.<\/p>\n

Yet this number may be a low-ball for two reasons. First, APRA has yet to respond to the FSI’s recommendation of introducing a minimum average residential mortgage “risk-weighting” of between 25 per cent and 30 per cent. Second, the majors are likely to be slugged with higher risk-weights on their non-residential assets as a consequence of the new Basel 4 rules.<\/p>\n

UBS’ research implies that the combined impact of this will be another $16 billion in CET1 on top of the $24 billion shortfall, which gives a total CET1 capital deficiency of $40 billion.<\/p>\n

The Australian Financial Review’s Chanticleer column says the majors will only be given 12 months to boost CET1 in response to APRA’s looming decision on residential mortgage risk-weights, which the regulator says it will make “shortly”.<\/p>\n

Bank share prices tipped to decline<\/strong><\/p>\n

From a shareholders’ perspective, higher equity means lower leverage and associated returns. Whether that translates into a fall in the majors’ valuations is an open question and depends on whether reduced returns on equity are offset by repricing of deposits and loans and cheaper overall funding costs. As I have explained before, there are arguments for and against. My base-case is that we see a 200 basis point dilution in returns on equity from current world-beating marks that results in a circa 18.5 per cent reduction in major bank valuations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

I would expect APRA to soften the blow by phasing in increased capital ratios and risk-weighting of residential mortgages over time. The impact this will have on valuations depends on several factors. Lower perceived risk could lead to lower cost of funding as well as higher earnings multiples. Also, a BIS study<\/a> has shown that banks with stronger balance sheets are likely to experience stronger growth — which would again raise the earnings multiple. But I agree with Joye that we are likely to witness some softening of major bank stocks.<\/p>\n

Read more at Big banks still short $40b on APRA's terms | afr.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chris Joye at the AFR warns that increased capital requirements could cause an 18.5 percent fall in bank stocks: ….APRA warns that because the report makes several assumptions that are unrealistically favourable to the majors, and the majors’ CET1 ratios have fallen behind global peers since June 2014, it believes they “are likely to need … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Bank share prices tipped to decline”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates"],"yoast_head":"\nBank share prices tipped to decline - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bank share prices tipped to decline - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Chris Joye at the AFR warns that increased capital requirements could cause an 18.5 percent fall in bank stocks: ….APRA warns that because the report makes several assumptions that are unrealistically favourable to the majors, and the majors’ CET1 ratios have fallen behind global peers since June 2014, it believes they “are likely to need … Continue reading "Bank share prices tipped to decline"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-07-14T04:07:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Bank share prices tipped to decline\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-07-14T04:07:26+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\"},\"wordCount\":450,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Australia & NZ\",\"Banks & Interest Rates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\",\"name\":\"Bank share prices tipped to decline - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2015-07-14T04:07:26+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/14\/bank-share-prices-tipped-to-decline\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bank share prices tipped to decline\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Having respected resistance at 8500, a test of primary support at 8000 is likely. Twiggs Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure. Return on equity is falling. A combination of narrow interest margins.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19379,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/11\/14\/australia-major-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":12053,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Major banks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 14, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Our review of APRA's June 2019 quarterly report on the four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- concludes that they are collectively priced at a 16.5% premium over fair value. Technically, the ASX 300 Banks Index ($XBAK) is experiencing secondary selling pressure and a correction is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18588,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/08\/01\/australian-banks-still-overpriced\/","url_meta":{"origin":12053,"position":3},"title":"Australian banks: Still overpriced","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary We have just completed a review of Australia's four major banks -- Commonwealth, Westpac, ANZ and NAB -- and conclude that they are collectively overpriced by 23.5 percent. Our review is based on APRA's quarterly reports, where the four banks can be viewed as a collective unit. The ASX\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10764,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/28\/banks-hold-more-risk-than-before-gfc-chris-joye\/","url_meta":{"origin":12053,"position":4},"title":"Banks hold more risk than before GFC | Chris Joye","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 28, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Chris Joye explains why risk-weighted capital ratios used by Australia's major banks are misleading and why true leverage is more than 20 times tier 1 capital. It was only after 2008 when regulators allowed the majors to slash risk-weightings on home loans from 50 per cent to 15 per cent\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Tier 1 Capital to Gross Assets","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.afr.com\/r\/AFR\/Blogs\/christopher_joye\/201408\/Images\/APRA3.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.afr.com\/r\/AFR\/Blogs\/christopher_joye\/201408\/Images\/APRA3.png?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.afr.com\/r\/AFR\/Blogs\/christopher_joye\/201408\/Images\/APRA3.png?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13519,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/04\/more-capital-likely-for-banks-apra\/","url_meta":{"origin":12053,"position":5},"title":"More capital ‘likely’ for banks: APRA","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 4, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Clancy Yeates: APRA on Monday updated a study that showed the common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of Australia's major banks were now in the top quartile of banks internationally \u2013 a key target set by the 2014 financial system inquiry......APRA said the banks' average CET1 ratios were\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12053\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}