{"id":11998,"date":"2015-06-30T03:04:00","date_gmt":"2015-06-30T07:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11998"},"modified":"2015-06-30T03:04:00","modified_gmt":"2015-06-30T07:04:00","slug":"global-economy-no-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/30\/global-economy-no-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Global economy: No surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The global economy faces deflationary pressures as the vast credit expansion of the last 4 decades comes to an end.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" title=\"$60 Trillion Global Credit\" alt=\"$60 Trillion Global Credit\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-credit.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Commodity prices test their 2009 lows. Breach of support at 100 on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index would warn of further price falls.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index\" alt=\"Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-dubs.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The dramatic fall in bulk commodity prices confirms the end of China&#8217;s massive infrastructure boom.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"418\" height=\"372\" title=\"Bulk Commodity Prices\" alt=\"Bulk Commodity Prices\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-bulkcommodities.png?resize=418%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Crude oil, through a combination of increased production and slack demand has fallen to around $60\/barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Crude Oil\" alt=\"Crude Oil\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-crudeoil.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Falling prices have had a sharp impact on global Resources and Energy stocks&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"DJ Global Energy\" alt=\"DJ Global Energy\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-energy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But in the longer term, will act as a stimulus to the global economy. Already we can see an up-turn in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.harperpetersen.com\/harpex\/harpexRH.do\">Harpex<\/a> index of container vessel shipping rates, signaling an increase in international trade in finished goods.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"512\" height=\"324\" title=\"Harpex\" alt=\"Harpex\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-harpex.png?resize=512%2C324&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The latest OECD export statistics show who the likely beneficiaries will be. Primary producers like Brazil and Russia have suffered the most, while finished goods manufacturers like China and the European Union display growth in exports. The US experienced a drop in the first quarter of 2015, but should rebound provided the Dollar does not strengthen further.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"234\" title=\"OECD Exports\" alt=\"OECD Exports\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-exports.png?resize=525%2C234&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Australia and Japan offer a similar contrast.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"268\" height=\"143\" title=\"OECD Exports\" alt=\"OECD Exports\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-30-exports2.png?resize=268%2C143&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Oil-rich Norway (-5.8%,-13.3%) has also been hard hit. Primary producers are only likely to recover much later in the economic cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The global economy faces deflationary pressures as the vast credit expansion of the last 4 decades comes to an end. Commodity prices test their 2009 lows. Breach of support at 100 on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index would warn of further price falls. The dramatic fall in bulk commodity prices confirms the end of &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/30\/global-economy-no-surprises\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Global economy: No surprises&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,43,44,5,17,33,34],"tags":[520,898,990,1059,1127,1559,1651,2548],"class_list":["post-11998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-economy","category-japan-korea","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bulk-commodity-prices","tag-crude-oil-2","tag-deflation","tag-dj-global-energy","tag-dow-jones-ubs-commodity-index","tag-global-credit","tag-harpex","tag-oecd-exports"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global economy: No surprises - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global economy: No surprises - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The global economy faces deflationary pressures as the vast credit expansion of the last 4 decades comes to an end. Commodity prices test their 2009 lows. Breach of support at 100 on the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index would warn of further price falls. 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The Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index remains at one-third of its 2007 peak, with no sign of recovery. The fall in crude prices hasn't been as severe, but Brent Crude is again weakening and looks set for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9268,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/02\/20\/crude-and-commodities-signal-up-trend\/","url_meta":{"origin":11998,"position":1},"title":"Crude and commodities signal recovery","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index followed through above resistance at 128, after breaking its descending trendline, completing a double bottom reversal with a target of 134*. Breakout above 134 would confirm a primary up-trend. * Target calculation: 128 + ( 128 - 122 ) = 134 Nymex Light Crude followed,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/31\/commodities-weaken-on-soft-demand\/","url_meta":{"origin":11998,"position":2},"title":"Commodities weaken on soft demand","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices fell sharply in July, especially Brent Crude [pink] which is testing support at $104\/$106 per barrel. Breach of that support level, or $98\/$100 for Nymex Light Crude, would signal a primary down-trend. Commodity prices have weakened in sympathy, with Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index falling sharply since breaking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-31-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10606,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/14\/crude-and-commodities-weaken\/","url_meta":{"origin":11998,"position":3},"title":"Crude and commodities weaken","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil prices are falling. Nymex Light Crude broke support at $98\/barrel, signaling a test of primary support at $92\/barrel, while Brent Crude is testing primary support at $104. Retreat of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a Nymex (CL) down-trend. Commodity prices are being dragged down, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10812,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/03\/crude-and-commodities-test-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":11998,"position":4},"title":"Crude and commodities test support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex Light Crude is testing primary support at $92\/barrel while 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) warns of a down-trend. Brent Crude is also approaching primary support, at $99\/barrel. Breach of support would confirm a down-trend. Commodity prices are falling as the Dollar strengthens. Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index is approaching\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-03-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10260,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/09\/commodities-weak-except-for-crude\/","url_meta":{"origin":11998,"position":5},"title":"Commodities weak except for crude","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Chinese stocks test long-term support Commodities weaken Crude oil remains high China's Shanghai Composite Index continues to test long-term support. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Commodity prices are weakening, with Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index breaking support at 133 to warn of another test\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Shanghai Composite Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-ssec.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11998\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}