{"id":11815,"date":"2015-05-13T21:44:23","date_gmt":"2015-05-14T01:44:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11815"},"modified":"2015-05-13T21:44:23","modified_gmt":"2015-05-14T01:44:23","slug":"us-gdp-where-is-it-headed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/13\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\/","title":{"rendered":"US GDP: Where is it headed?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I originally got this from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mbusigin\">Matt Busigin<\/a> (I think). Average Hourly Earnings multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private: Nonfarm) gives a pretty good indication of where GDP is headed, well ahead of the BEA accounts.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"281\" title=\"Nominal GDP compared to Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees (Total Private) multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private Nonfarm)\" alt=\"Nominal GDP compared to Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees (Total Private) multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private Nonfarm)\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png?resize=525%2C281&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Remember this is nominal GDP, so the latest (April 2015) figure of 4.38% would need to be adjusted for inflation. Inflation is somewhere between 0.5% and 1.75% depending on how you measure it. The GDP deflator looks like it will come in below 1.0% which would leave us with real GDP of at least 3.38% p.a.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"281\" title=\"GDP Price Deflator compared to Core CPI\" alt=\"GDP Price Deflator compared to Core CPI\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-cpi.png?resize=525%2C281&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I originally got this from Matt Busigin (I think). Average Hourly Earnings multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private: Nonfarm) gives a pretty good indication of where GDP is headed, well ahead of the BEA accounts. Remember this is nominal GDP, so the latest (April 2015) figure of 4.38% would need to be adjusted for &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/13\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;US GDP: Where is it headed?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,13,34],"tags":[314,320,818,1524,1828,2485,2870],"class_list":["post-11815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-average-weekly-hours","tag-core-cpi","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US GDP: Where is it headed? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US GDP: Where is it headed? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I originally got this from Matt Busigin (I think). Average Hourly Earnings multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private: Nonfarm) gives a pretty good indication of where GDP is headed, well ahead of the BEA accounts. Remember this is nominal GDP, so the latest (April 2015) figure of 4.38% would need to be adjusted for &hellip; Continue reading &quot;US GDP: Where is it headed?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/13\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-05-14T01:44:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"US GDP: Where is it headed?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-14T01:44:23+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":93,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2015\\\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Average Weekly Hours\",\"Core CPI\",\"GDP\",\"Inflation\",\"nominal GDP\",\"Real GDP\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\",\"Inflation\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/\",\"name\":\"US GDP: Where is it headed? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2015\\\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-14T01:44:23+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2015\\\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2015\\\/2015-05-14-gdp-earnings.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/05\\\/13\\\/us-gdp-where-is-it-headed\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"US GDP: Where is it headed?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Average hourly earnings continues to grow, coming in at 6.35% for the 12 months to June. Strong earnings growth reflects the labor shortage, where job\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-08-jobs.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38557,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/05\/us-labor-market-easing-but-too-early-for-a-fed-pause\/","url_meta":{"origin":11815,"position":1},"title":"US labor market easing but too early for a Fed pause","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"October BLS labor statistics give a good insight into underlying inflationary pressures. Unemployment climbed slightly, to 6.06 million but lags a long way behind job openings (10.72 m), indicating a tight labor market. There has been speculation, however, that employers were hanging onto employees, rather than letting them go as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment & Job Openings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-04-u3-jolts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31799,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/02\/march-payrolls-indicate-more-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":11815,"position":2},"title":"March payrolls warn of more inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 2, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Average hourly earnings grew at the rate of 6.75% for the 12 months to March, a sign that inflation is becoming embedded in the economy. Job openings of 11.27 million in February exceeded unemployment by 5 million. The shortfall of workers is expected to maintain upward pressure on wages for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Average Hourly Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-01-wages.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15652,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/28\/nasdaq-soars\/","url_meta":{"origin":11815,"position":3},"title":"Nasdaq soars","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 28, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP results for the second quarter of 2017 reflect recovery from the soft patch in 2016. Source: St Louis Fed, BLS & BEA Nominal GDP for Q2 improved to 3.71%, measured annually. This closely follows our intial estimate calculated from Nonfarm Payroll * Average Weekly Hours * Average Hourly Rate.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":42925,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/08\/strong-jobs-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":11815,"position":4},"title":"Strong jobs report, more rate hikes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The latest BLS Labor Report shows the economy gained 209,000 jobs in June, after seasonal adjustments. Average weekly hours worked rebounded to 34.4, showing stronger demand. Continued claims (for unemployment insurance) have been trending lower since April. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in June, from 3.7% in May, close\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Job Gains","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-07-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":36972,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/03\/more-us-jobs-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":11815,"position":5},"title":"More US jobs growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The US economy added 315K new jobs in August, but the rate of growth is clearly slowing. Unemployment also rose, by 340K, suggesting a 655K increase in the workforce as rising prices and declining stock values reduce the allure of early retirement. But job openings still exceed unemployment by more\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-02-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}