{"id":11795,"date":"2015-05-12T03:45:57","date_gmt":"2015-05-12T07:45:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11795"},"modified":"2015-05-12T03:45:57","modified_gmt":"2015-05-12T07:45:57","slug":"gold-inflation-and-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold, inflation and the Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The (5-year) inflation breakeven (Treasury yield &#8211; TIPS) recovered from the oil price fall to post 1.66% on May 8.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"280\" alt=\"5-Year Inflation Breakeven\" title=\"5-Year Inflation Breakeven\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png?resize=525%2C280&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in average hourly earnings (manufacturing &#8211; production and non-supervisory employees) also recovered to 1.49% at the end of April.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"283\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings\" title=\"Average Hourly Earnings\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-ave-hourly.png?resize=525%2C283&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The stronger inflation outlook lifted the yield on 10-year Treasury notes above resistance at 2.25%. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero also signals an up-trend. Target for the breakout is 2.65%*. This is a bearish sign for bonds, but only breakout above long-term resistance at 3.00% would signal that the secular bull market is over.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2.25 + ( 2.25 &#8211; 1.85 ) = 2.65<\/p>\n<p>The Dollar Index found support at 94 in response to rising yields. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum is declining, but recovery above 96 would suggest that the correction is over and another test of 100 likely. Otherwise, expect strong support at the primary trendline around 92.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Gold<\/h2>\n<p>Gold is testing medium-term support at $1180\/ounce. Breach would test the primary level at $1140. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of $1140 would test the long-term target of $1000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The (5-year) inflation breakeven (Treasury yield &#8211; TIPS) recovered from the oil price fall to post 1.66% on May 8. Growth in average hourly earnings (manufacturing &#8211; production and non-supervisory employees) also recovered to 1.49% at the end of April. The stronger inflation outlook lifted the yield on 10-year Treasury notes above resistance at 2.25%. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold, inflation and the Dollar&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,13,35],"tags":[70,92,314,1073,1828,3204],"class_list":["post-11795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-5-year-inflation-breakeven","tag-average-hourly-earnings","tag-dollar-index","tag-inflation","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold, inflation and the Dollar - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold, inflation and the Dollar - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The (5-year) inflation breakeven (Treasury yield &#8211; TIPS) recovered from the oil price fall to post 1.66% on May 8. Growth in average hourly earnings (manufacturing &#8211; production and non-supervisory employees) also recovered to 1.49% at the end of April. The stronger inflation outlook lifted the yield on 10-year Treasury notes above resistance at 2.25%. &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Gold, inflation and the Dollar&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-05-12T07:45:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Gold, inflation and the Dollar\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-12T07:45:57+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\"},\"wordCount\":177,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yields\",\"5-year inflation breakeven\",\"Average Hourly Earnings\",\"Dollar Index\",\"Inflation\",\"Spot Gold\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Gold &amp; Precious Metals\",\"Inflation\",\"US Dollar Index\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\",\"name\":\"Gold, inflation and the Dollar - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-05-12T07:45:57+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-05-12-inflation.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/05\/12\/gold-inflation-and-the-dollar\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Gold, inflation and the Dollar\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Follow-through above $1750 would signal a test of the upper trend channel. 10-Year Treasury yields are steady at 1.71%, while the inflation breakeven rate continues its climb, reaching 2.36%, with the real yield holding at -0.65%. The Dollar Index weakened slightly but is still\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12372,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/01\/gold-and-treasury-yields-decline-as-inflation-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":11795,"position":1},"title":"Gold and Treasury yields decline as inflation weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 1, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"US inflation. Core CPI is hovering below 2.0 percent but the 5-year inflation breakeven (5-year Treasury yield minus TIPS yield) suggests that inflation will fall. The recent slow-down in average hourly manufacturing earnings growth (production and non-supervisory employees) may just be statistical noise, but decline of either of these signals\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5 Year Inflation Breakeven","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-01-inflation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12440,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":11795,"position":2},"title":"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13789,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/10\/26\/low-inflation-and-a-stronger-dollar-indicate-weak-gold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":11795,"position":3},"title":"Low inflation and a stronger dollar indicate weak gold","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Growth in hourly manufacturing earnings has climbed above the Fed target of 2.0 percent, while core CPI continues to track near the target. But the 5-year breakeven rate (5-year Treasury minus TIPS yield) is close to 1.0 percent. The market expects inflation to fall over the next few years. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"5-Year Breakeven Rate, Core CPI and Growth in Hourly Manufacturing Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-10-26-5yrbreakeven.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/06\/crude-oil-and-gold-twin-attack-on-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":11795,"position":4},"title":"Crude oil and Gold twin attack on the Dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Crude oil and Gold continue their twin attack on the Dollar. Rising 10-year yields reflect increased risk of inflation as a strong BLS jobs report reflects robust economic growth and a tight labor market. Brent crude climbed to $91.15 per barrel, headed for our medium-term target of $96. Gold broke\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-05-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12526,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/17\/gold-breaks-support-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":11795,"position":5},"title":"Gold breaks support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold fell to $1070\/ounce, breaching the band of primary support between $1080 and $1100 per ounce. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum peaks below zero indicate a strong primary down-trend. The next level of support is $1000\/ounce*. * Target calculation: 1100 - ( 1200 - 1100 ) = 1000 Inflation Core CPI is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-11-17-gold.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11795","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11795"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11795\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11795"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11795"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11795"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}