{"id":11579,"date":"2015-02-26T00:41:40","date_gmt":"2015-02-26T05:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11579"},"modified":"2015-02-26T00:41:40","modified_gmt":"2015-02-26T05:41:40","slug":"gold-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/26\/gold-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold and the impact of Beijing on Fed monetary policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

The prospect of higher interest rates is fast approaching, but 10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 2.0%, warning of another test of the December low at 1.40%. <\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

The weight of foreign purchases, for reasons other than yield (dollar peg\/currency manipulation), may be overwhelming the market response. This has happened before, in 2004\/2005, when the Fed was alarmed to find that long-term yields failed to respond to monetary tightening. The graphs below are from a 2012 report by DO Beltran (and others) at the Fed<\/a>. The Fed Funds Rate was steadily increased between mid-2004 and the end of 2005, but 10-year yields declined slightly over the same period.<\/p>\n

\"Fed<\/p>\n

The reason was fairly obvious: a massive surge in foreign purchases (mainly from China) had left the long-term market awash with liquidity. US monetary policy was effectively being controlled from Beijing.<\/p>\n

\"Foreign<\/p>\n

I cannot understand why this abuse has been tolerated.<\/p>\n

The Dollar<\/h3>\n

The Dollar Index has been consolidating for the last 5 weeks, but the narrow range is a bullish sign and the Dollar is likely to strengthen further. Breakout would offer a medium-term target of 100*.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 90 + ( 90 – 80 ) = 100<\/p>\n

Gold<\/h3>\n

Spot Gold is testing support at $1200\/ounce. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another decline. A trough below the zero line would strengthen the bear signal.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1200 – ( 1400 – 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n

The strong Dollar, low inflation and higher interest rates all point to another decline, but so far support has held firm. Completion of another trough at this level would strengthen the argument that gold is forming a long-term bottom. Possibly with help from Beijing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The prospect of higher interest rates is fast approaching, but 10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 2.0%, warning of another test of the December low at 1.40%. The weight of foreign purchases, for reasons other than yield (dollar peg\/currency manipulation), may be overwhelming the market response. This has happened before, in 2004\/2005, when the Fed was … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Gold and the impact of Beijing on Fed monetary policy”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,9,35],"tags":[70,1073,3204],"class_list":["post-11579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-dollar-index","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"\nGold and the impact of Beijing on Fed monetary policy - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold and the impact of Beijing on Fed monetary policy - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The prospect of higher interest rates is fast approaching, but 10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 2.0%, warning of another test of the December low at 1.40%. 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Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. Bitcoin in a strong up-trend signals investors are risk-on (tolerant of risk). A Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) breakout above 200 would strengthen the bull signal. The 10-Year Treasury yield,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Gold & Precious Metals"","block_context":{"text":"Gold & Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45423,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/16\/treasury-false-alarm\/","url_meta":{"origin":11579,"position":1},"title":"Treasury false alarm","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 16, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields recovered above support at 4.50%, indicating a likely false alarm over falling interest rates. Real retail sales continued above their pre-pandemic trend (dotted line) for the month of October, indicating that the Fed has more work to do to slow consumer spending and tame inflation. A tight\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/08\/sp-500-correction-but-weak-dollar-drives-gold-bulls\/","url_meta":{"origin":11579,"position":2},"title":"S&P 500 correction but weak Dollar lifts gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Liquidity in financial markets is slowly contracting, increasing downward pressure on stock prices. The flight to safety from stocks is expected to lower long-term Treasury yields, boosting demand for gold. Financial Markets Bitcoin recovered above resistance at $56K but remains in a down-trend, warning of contracting liquidity in financial markets.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22781,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/21\/gold-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":11579,"position":3},"title":"Gold snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 21, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed expanded its balance sheet to a new record high of $7.24 trillion. 10-Year Treasury Yields softened to 0.82% in response. The 10-year TIPS yield finished largely unchanged at -0.84%, compared to -0.83% last week. Negative real Treasury yields increase the attraction of Gold relative to Treasuries for long-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24635,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/20\/gold-and-another-treasury-sequel\/","url_meta":{"origin":11579,"position":4},"title":"Gold and another Treasury sequel","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term Treasury yields are strengthening, with the 10-year reaching 1.73% on Friday. The real yield shrank to -0.58% (1.73 - 2.31), breaking resistance at -0.60%. Long-term yields may be rallying but the primary trend is downward. Fed asset purchases are accelerating. The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 92. Rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62492,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/26\/dollar-rises-as-rate-cuts-rewind\/","url_meta":{"origin":11579,"position":5},"title":"Dollar rises as rate cuts unwind","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The dollar has strengthened as the prospect of steep rate cuts fades. Gold is retracing to test support at $3,650 per ounce. However, secular trends in bonds, the dollar, and gold\/silver are unlikely to change. The US Dollar index broke resistance at 98 as traders unwind bets on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Cryptocurrency"","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}