{"id":11522,"date":"2015-02-04T23:51:14","date_gmt":"2015-02-05T04:51:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11522"},"modified":"2015-02-04T23:51:14","modified_gmt":"2015-02-05T04:51:14","slug":"oil-prices-where-to-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/04\/oil-prices-where-to-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices: Where to now?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The latest newsletter from Absolute Return Partners<\/a> suggests that the fall in oil prices is temporary and oil will soon recover to around $100\/barrel:<\/p>\n

\u201cAll I know is that the price of oil won\u2019t stay below the production cost for a long period of time (as in years). Hence I think we will see the oil price at $100 again, and it won\u2019t take many years, but it could be an extraordinarily bumpy ride.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The chart below depicts crude oil prices (WTI) from 1987 to 2014, adjusted to current (November 2014) prices.<\/p>\n

\"Nymex<\/p>\n

What it shows is that, prior to 2004, crude oil prices seldom exceeded $40\/barrel. If, for most of the 17-year period, prices were below $40\/barrel and supply continued unabated, then production costs must be even lower. Some of the more accessible oil fields may be nearing the end of their life, but production costs for major producers such as the Saudis could not have changed much (in real terms) over the last 10 years. That means true production costs are a lot lower than ARP’s estimate. <\/p>\n

I tend to side with Anatole Kaletsky<\/a> who views $50\/barrel as the likely ceiling for crude oil prices — and not the floor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The latest newsletter from Absolute Return Partners suggests that the fall in oil prices is temporary and oil will soon recover to around $100\/barrel: \u201cAll I know is that the price of oil won\u2019t stay below the production cost for a long period of time (as in years). Hence I think we will see the … <\/p>\n

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At the height of the 2020 pandemic, Nymex WTI crude oil prices fell to an unprecedented low of -$13.10 per barrel as demand dried up and oil storage facilities reached capacity. Producers faced a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-14-crude3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61570,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/02\/trade-war-risks-an-oil-price-war\/","url_meta":{"origin":11522,"position":1},"title":"Trade war risks an oil price war","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The threat of a global trade war precipitated by President Trump's tariffs on imports has sent oil prices plunging, anticipating a global recession OPEC+ announced a planned 411,000 barrels per day increase in output in May, three times earlier monthly increments Low oil prices have put the Saudi budget\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13755,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/01\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":11522,"position":2},"title":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 1, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,\u201d Grantham writes. \u201cIt merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game....\u201d[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10865,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/11\/no-rebound-in-sight-for-sliding-oil-prices\/","url_meta":{"origin":11522,"position":3},"title":"No Rebound In Sight For Sliding Oil Prices","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 11, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"From Nick Cunningham at Oilprice.com Brent crude has now dipped below $100 per barrel, for the first time in over a year. WTI is trading around $92 per barrel, a 16-month low. ...The glut of supplies and weak demand is causing problems for OPEC, according to the cartel\u2019s monthly report.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11386,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/30\/crude-oil-a-zero-sum-game\/","url_meta":{"origin":11522,"position":4},"title":"Crude oil: A zero-sum game?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 30, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe current fall in price does nothing to offset the squeeze on the total economy from rising costs,\u201d Grantham writes. \u201cIt merely transfers massive amounts of income from one subgroup (oil producers) to another (oil consumers), in a largely zero-sum game....\u201d[Business Insider] The above quote from Jeremy Grantham made me\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-01-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11949,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/06\/17\/crude-where-next\/","url_meta":{"origin":11522,"position":5},"title":"Crude: Where next?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 17, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Nymex Light Crude plotted against CPI gives an historical perspective on current crude prices: high prior to China's entry into the global energy market, but low relative to prices since then. Expect strong support at the 2008 low. Has fracking permanently suppressed oil prices, or will production dwindle over time\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Crude Oil & Natural Gas"","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil & Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex WTI Light Crude and Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-06-18-crude-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11522"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11522\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}