{"id":11519,"date":"2015-02-04T20:17:23","date_gmt":"2015-02-05T01:17:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11519"},"modified":"2015-02-04T20:17:23","modified_gmt":"2015-02-05T01:17:23","slug":"goldman-describes-australias-lost-decade-macrobusiness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/04\/goldman-describes-australias-lost-decade-macrobusiness\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade | Macrobusiness"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Posted by <em>Houses and Holes<\/em>. Reproduced with kind permission from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2015\/02\/goldman-describes-australias-lost-decade\/?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=Daily+MacroBusiness&amp;utm_content=Daily+MacroBusiness+CID_62034e09c0d74037d31447a748d41779&amp;utm_source=Email+marketing+software&amp;utm_term=Goldman+describes+Australias+lost+decade\" title=\"Macrobusiness: Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade\" target=\"_blank\">Macrobusiness<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman\u2019s&nbsp;Tim Toohey&nbsp;has quantified the unwinding commodity super-cycle for &#8216;Straya&#8217;:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Lower commodity prices risk $0.5trn in forgone earnings<br \/>\nThe outlook for revenues from Australian LNG and bulk commodities&nbsp;shipments \u2013 which account for almost half of total export earnings \u2013 has&nbsp;deteriorated significantly. To be clear, overall revenues are still forecast to&nbsp;increase substantially over the coming years \u2013 underpinned by a broadly&nbsp;unchanged strong outlook for physical shipments (particularly for LNG).&nbsp;However, in a nominal sense, the outlook is far less positive than before.&nbsp;This owes to a structurally weaker price environment, with GS downgrades&nbsp;of 18% to 25% to key long term price forecasts for LNG and bulk&nbsp;commodities suggesting that cumulative earnings over the years to 2025&nbsp;are on track to be ~$0.5trn lower than previously forecast.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/124.png\" rel=\"lightbox[356989]\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-356993\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/124-300x138.png?resize=300%2C138\" alt=\"1\" width=\"300\" height=\"138\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/37.png\" rel=\"lightbox[356989]\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-356995\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/37-300x145.png?resize=300%2C145\" alt=\"3\" width=\"300\" height=\"145\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2026 and will erode Australia\u2019s trade\/fiscal positions<br \/>\nThe deterioration in the earnings environment naturally has direct&nbsp;implications for Australia\u2019s international trade and fiscal positions. On the&nbsp;former, a return to surplus by CY18 no longer looks feasible, and we now&nbsp;expect a deficit of ~$15bn. On the latter, relative to the 2014&nbsp;Commonwealth Budget, we estimate that weaker commodity prices will&nbsp;cause a ~$40bn shortfall in tax revenues over the next four years. Given&nbsp;our expectation that Australia\u2019s LNG sector will deliver no additional PRRT&nbsp;revenues over the coming decade, and the ~$18bn downgrade to&nbsp;commodity-related tax in the December MYEFO, we therefore see a risk of&nbsp;further material revenue downgrades at May\u2019s 2015 Budget.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/53.png\" rel=\"lightbox[356989]\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-356996\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/02\/53-300x281.png?resize=300%2C281\" alt=\"5\" width=\"300\" height=\"281\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Resulting in changed GDP, RBA cash rate and FX forecasts<br \/>\nAlthough the commodity export changes mainly manifest through the&nbsp;nominal economy, there are significant impacts back through to the real&nbsp;economy. Lower export earnings result in lower profits, lower tax receipts,&nbsp;lower investment and lower employment. We continue to expect just 2.0%&nbsp;GDP growth in 2015 but have lowered our 2016 to 2018 real GDP forecasts&nbsp;by an average of 50ppts in each calendar year. As a consequence, we have&nbsp;moved forward the timing of the next RBA rate cut to May 2015, where we&nbsp;see the cash rate remaining at 2.0% until Q416, where we expect a 25bp&nbsp;hike. We now expect just 75bps of hikes in 2017 to 3.0% and rates on hold &nbsp;in 2018. Despite the recent move in the A$ towards our 75c 12 month&nbsp;target, the reassessment of the medium term forecast outlook argues for a&nbsp;new lower target 12 month target of 72c.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>OK, that\u2019s quite a piece of work and congratulations to Tim Toohey for getting so far ahead of pack. I have just two points to add.<\/p>\n<p>The LNG forecasts look good but as gloomy as his iron ore outlook is, it is not gloomy enough. $40 is a more reasonable price projection&nbsp;for&nbsp;2016-18 and we\u2019ll only climb out of that very slowly. That makes the dollar and interest rate forecasts&nbsp;far too bullish and hawkish.<\/p>\n<p>Second, even after these downgrades, Mr Toohey still has growth of 3.25% GDP penned in for 2016 and 3.5% for 2017. We\u2019ll have strong net exports and is about it.&nbsp;With the capex unwind running right through both years, housing construction to stop adding to growth by next year, the car industry wind-down at the same time, political strife destroying the public infrastructure pipeline, the terms of trade crashing throughout and households battered half to death by all of it, those targets are of the stretch variety, to say the least.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis is exceptional, The conclusions, sadly, overly optimistic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Posted by Houses and Holes. Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness. Goldman\u2019s&nbsp;Tim Toohey&nbsp;has quantified the unwinding commodity super-cycle for &#8216;Straya&#8217;: Lower commodity prices risk $0.5trn in forgone earnings The outlook for revenues from Australian LNG and bulk commodities&nbsp;shipments \u2013 which account for almost half of total export earnings \u2013 has&nbsp;deteriorated significantly. To be clear, overall &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/04\/goldman-describes-australias-lost-decade-macrobusiness\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade | Macrobusiness&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,43,44,5],"tags":[290,569,1328,1406,1902,2128,3367],"class_list":["post-11519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-economy","tag-australia","tag-capex-decline","tag-exports","tag-fiscal-budget","tag-iron-ore","tag-lng","tag-terms-of-trade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade | Macrobusiness - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Goldman describes Australia\u2019s lost decade | Macrobusiness - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Posted by Houses and Holes. Reproduced with kind permission from Macrobusiness. Goldman\u2019s&nbsp;Tim Toohey&nbsp;has quantified the unwinding commodity super-cycle for &#8216;Straya&#8217;: Lower commodity prices risk $0.5trn in forgone earnings The outlook for revenues from Australian LNG and bulk commodities&nbsp;shipments \u2013 which account for almost half of total export earnings \u2013 has&nbsp;deteriorated significantly. 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Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but the earnings\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-10-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19765,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/08\/sp-500-and-nasdaq-soar-as-commodities-plunge\/","url_meta":{"origin":11519,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq soar as Commodities plunge","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 8, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Commodities Brent crude dropped to $54\/barrel on fears that the coronavirus outbreak will slow Chinese imports. Expect a test of primary support at 50. China's largest LNG importer, state-owned CNOOC, invoked force majeure in order to get out of LNG supply contracts: Dow Jones - UBS Commodity Index broke primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20991,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/07\/15\/declining-prospects-for-oil-gas\/","url_meta":{"origin":11519,"position":2},"title":"Declining prospects for oil &#038; gas","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 15, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian oil giant Woodside Petroleum (WPL) reported $6.3 billion in write-downs this week, with impairments to all its Western Australian oil and gas assets, LNG plants and exploration licenses. Nick Toscano at the Sydney Morning Herald writes: \"Woodside's move comes after BP wrote off more than $25 billion last month\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13047,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/20\/china-trade-food-lng-coal-to-gain-ground-as-iron-ore-exports-slip-afr-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":11519,"position":3},"title":"China trade: Food, LNG, coal to gain ground as iron ore exports slip | afr.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 20, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ben Potter at AFR: Iron ore sales to China are set to fall as a share of total two-way trade, while natural gas, food and even coal exports will become more important, the paper, China's Evolving Demand for Commodities, finds. A decline in Chinese crude steel production means iron\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17747,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/16\/the-aussie-economy-is-quietly-falling-apart-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":11519,"position":4},"title":"The Aussie economy is quietly falling apart | Macrobusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 16, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"You\u2019d have to be as blind as the RBA to miss the signals. GDP is made up of six components and they are not going well on balance: government consumption is strong and likely to stay that way; government investment is peaking as the NBN rolls off and infrastructure starts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":891,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/21\/rio-tinto-warns-of-slowdown-in-demand-ft-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":11519,"position":5},"title":"Rio Tinto warns of slowdown in demand &#8211; FT.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Rio Tinto, one of the world\u2019s largest natural resources companies, has warned that some of its customers were asking to delay shipments of metals, in a clear sign that the financial turmoil is starting to affect the commodities sector. via Rio Tinto warns of slowdown in demand - FT.com.","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Africa &amp; South America&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Africa &amp; South America","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/africa-south-america\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11519","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11519\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}