{"id":11401,"date":"2014-12-07T18:22:21","date_gmt":"2014-12-07T23:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11401"},"modified":"2014-12-07T18:22:21","modified_gmt":"2014-12-07T23:22:21","slug":"a-long-term-view","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/07\/a-long-term-view\/","title":{"rendered":"A long-term view"},"content":{"rendered":"

Better than expected US jobs data and strong German factory orders helped to rally markets Friday. Also, ECB chief Mario Draghi’s Thursday announcement is seen as supporting broad-based asset purchases (QE) early in 2015. A long-term view of major markets may help to place current activity in perspective.<\/p>\n

The S&P 500 continues a strong advance, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Long-term and medium targets coincide at 2250* and we should expect further resistance at this level.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 1500 + ( 1500 – 750 ) = 2250; 2050 + ( 2050 – 1850 ) = 2250<\/p>\n

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Germany’s DAX broke resistance at its earlier high of 10000, suggesting a further advance. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum<\/b> above zero indicates continuation of the up-trend. The long-term target is 12500*, though I cannot see this being reached until tensions in Eastern Europe are resolved.<\/p>\n

\"DAX\"<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 2500 ) = 12500<\/p>\n

The Footsie is testing long-term resistance at 6900\/7000. Respect of the zero line by 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 7000 would signal a fresh primary advance, with a long-term target of 10500*.<\/p>\n

\"FTSE<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 – 3500 ) = 10500<\/p>\n

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke resistance at 2500 and is likely to test the 2009 high at 3500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong (medium-term) buying pressure.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is testing resistance at its 2007 high of 18000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow respecting the zero line indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout would signal another primary advance. A long-term target of 28000* seems unachievable unless one factors in rising inflation and continued devaluation of the yen.<\/p>\n

\"Nikkei<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 8000 ) = 28000<\/p>\n

Weak ASX 200 performance is highlighted by the distance below its 2007 high of 6850. Falling commodity prices have retarded the recovery and are likely to continue for some time ahead.<\/p>\n

The 2005-2008 Australian commodities boom was squandered, damaging local industry and hampering the current recovery. Norway successfully weathered a similar commodities boom in the 1990s, protecting local industry while establishing a sovereign wealth fund that is the envy of its peers. Their fiscal discipline set a precedent<\/a> which should be followed by any resource-rich country looking to navigate a sustainable path through a commodities boom and avoid the dreaded “Dutch Disease”.<\/p>\n

Respect of support at 5000 would indicate the primary up-trend is intact — but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Reversal of TMF below zero or breach of support at 5000\/5150 would warn of a down-trend.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

* Target calculation: 5000 + ( 5000 – 4000 ) = 6000<\/p>\n

The daily chart shows a slightly improved perspective. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating around zero signals indecision. Recovery above 5400 would suggest the correction is over. But reversal below 5200 is as likely and would warn of a test of primary support at 5120\/5150.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Better than expected US jobs data and strong German factory orders helped to rally markets Friday. Also, ECB chief Mario Draghi’s Thursday announcement is seen as supporting broad-based asset purchases (QE) early in 2015. A long-term view of major markets may help to place current activity in perspective. The S&P 500 continues a strong advance, … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “A long-term view”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,43,44,5,17,57,33,34],"tags":[251,615,947,1147,1481,2479,2502,3010,3100],"class_list":["post-11401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-commodities-gold-commodities","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-economy","category-japan-korea","category-stock-markets","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-asx-200","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-dax","tag-dutch-disease","tag-ftse-100","tag-nikkei-225-index","tag-norway","tag-sp-500","tag-shanghai-composite-index"],"yoast_head":"\nA long-term view - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A long-term view - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Better than expected US jobs data and strong German factory orders helped to rally markets Friday. 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VIX continues to indicate a bull market. ASX 200 breaks resistance. The S&P 500 retreated below its new support level at 1985, indicating a false break. Consolidation between 1950 and 1985 is likely \u2014 below the psychological barrier at 2000. Respect of support at 1950\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13729,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/26\/consolidation-expected-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":11401,"position":1},"title":"Consolidation expected","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"S&P 500 retreats below 1985. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. ASX 200 breaks resistance. The S&P 500 retreated below its new support level at 1985, indicating a false break. Consolidation between 1950 and 1985 is likely \u2014 below the psychological barrier at 2000. Respect of support at 1950\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-25-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/11\/20\/asx-under-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":11401,"position":2},"title":"ASX under pressure","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 20, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 continues to test resistance at 2050, the upper bound of the broadening wedge. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 2250*. Reversal below 2000 is less likely, but would warn of another correction. * Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-11-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10592,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/11\/dow-and-sp-500-find-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":11401,"position":3},"title":"Dow and S&P 500 find support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 11, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to test medium-term support at the December high of 16500. Breach of support would warn of a correction to the primary trendline \u2014 at 16000 \u2014 while respect of support would indicate another attempt at 17000. Failure of primary support at 15400\/15600 remains unlikely, but\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-12-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-12-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-12-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10577,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/08\/europe-tests-primary-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":11401,"position":4},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 8, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13733,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/09\/europe-tests-primary-support-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":11401,"position":5},"title":"Europe tests primary support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary: Europe threatens reversal to a down-trend. S&P 500 finds support. VIX continues to indicate a bull market. China's Shanghai Composite encounters selling pressure. ASX 200 experiences a secondary correction. Dow Jones Europe Index is testing the primary trendline and support at 315. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Europe Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-09-djeu.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11401","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11401"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11401\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11401"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11401"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11401"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}