{"id":11233,"date":"2014-10-30T14:11:43","date_gmt":"2014-10-30T18:11:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11233"},"modified":"2014-10-30T14:11:43","modified_gmt":"2014-10-30T18:11:43","slug":"should-beijing-raise-subway-fares-michael-pettis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/30\/should-beijing-raise-subway-fares-michael-pettis\/","title":{"rendered":"Should Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael Pettis’ argues that not only are SOEs “destroying value in the aggregate on a huge scale” but misallocated investment is endemic in China.<\/p>\n

I have to confess that the reason I started saying in 2006-07 that China was eventually going to replace 1980s Japan as the global archetype of investment misallocation was not because I had a lot of data proving my case. Overinvestment is almost impossible to prove until after the fact, especially when you consider the circularity of the data \u2013 the growth assumptions feed into the valuation of the investment, which then feeds back into the growth assumptions.<\/p>\n

My reasons were much more \u201csystemic\u201d. I did not believe it was possible for any country not to experience significant wasted investment after so many years \u2013 more than a decade in this case \u2013 of the highest investment growth rate in the world funded by massive credit expansion at such incredibly low lending rates roughly one-third the nominal GDP growth rate, and 1-3 percentage points below the GDP deflator. Add more spicy ingredients to the stew \u2013 first, the very limited experience of Chinese bankers and regulators, and most of that in a one-way market, second, widespread moral hazard, third, weak corporate governance, fourth, very fuzzy data, and finally, no enforced system of accountability \u2013 and I found it impossible to doubt that investment was being dangerously misallocated.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

He also dispels the counter-argument that \u201cWestern\u201d models don\u2019t apply to China and that “a very poor, low-capital-stock country far from the technological frontier like China” is able to absorb higher levels of investment.<\/p>\n

In 2008 (Red Star<\/a>) I compared China to a red star in astronomy:<\/p>\n

Students of astronomy will tell you that a red star, far from indicating heat, is cooling appreciably. While its diameter may expand, its core is contracting and its temperature falling. Eventually it will either explode or shrink to become a dwarf star….<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

My warning of an imminent collapse may have been premature, but no economy can survive such high levels of investment misallocation without major upheaval. China risks following the boom-bust growth path of Japan and the Asian tigers in the 1980s and 1990s.<\/p>\n

Read more at Should Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis' CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Michael Pettis’ argues that not only are SOEs “destroying value in the aggregate on a huge scale” but misallocated investment is endemic in China. I have to confess that the reason I started saying in 2006-07 that China was eventually going to replace 1980s Japan as the global archetype of investment misallocation was not because … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Should Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,5],"tags":[663,1838,1887,3170],"class_list":["post-11233","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-economy","tag-china","tag-infrastructure","tag-investment-misallocation","tag-soe"],"yoast_head":"\nShould Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Should Beijing raise subway fares? | Michael Pettis - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Michael Pettis’ argues that not only are SOEs “destroying value in the aggregate on a huge scale” but misallocated investment is endemic in China. 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My argument is that subject to two very plausible assumptions, every economic policy Beijing implements ultimately can be abstracted to one choice\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11511,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/01\/infrastructure-opportunity-michael-pettis-china-financial-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":11233,"position":1},"title":"Infrastructure opportunity | Michael Pettis’ CHINA FINANCIAL MARKETS","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 1, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting view from Michael Pettis: Excess liquidity and risk appetite makes it easy to lock in cheap, long-term funding for investment projects. Countries that have weak infrastructure, or whose infrastructure is in serious need of improvement, have today an historical opportunity to build or replenish the value of their infrastructure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Investment & Infrastructure"","block_context":{"text":"Investment & Infrastructure","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/investment-infrastructure\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":40639,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/01\/30\/michael-pettis-the-china-shock-is-coming\/","url_meta":{"origin":11233,"position":2},"title":"Michael Pettis: The China Shock is Coming","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 30, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QcdPMOMS7N8 Michael Pettis is a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing and one of the foremost Western experts on China, having lived there for almost two decades. He explains the Chinese growth model, why it no longer works, and the hard choices ahead. China's Growth Model China's growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China Non-Financial Credit\/GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-01-30-china-credit.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28304,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/12\/deconstructing-evergrandes-effect-on-china\/","url_meta":{"origin":11233,"position":3},"title":"Deconstructing Evergrande’s effect on China","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Elliot Clarke at Westpac says that China will be able to withstand the shock of Evergrande's collapse and that power outages are a bigger threat. https:\/\/youtu.be\/z3wmpdiGRNQ We still think that the property sector contagion is part of a broader issue that China will struggle to overcome, as Michael Pettis succinctly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/z3wmpdiGRNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":30779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/04\/michael-pettis-common-prosperity-and-commodities\/","url_meta":{"origin":11233,"position":4},"title":"Michael Pettis | Common prosperity and commodities","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2022","format":"video","excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/LxQ5CiS1QfA?t=702 Listening to Michael Pettis discussing China's \"common prosperity\" drive, it's clear that investment will have to fall as a percentage of GDP in order for consumption to rise. That means \"Chinese consumption of cement and industrial metals will have to go down.\" Conclusion There is no country that is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/LxQ5CiS1QfA\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":8980,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/19\/shanghai-selling-pressure\/","url_meta":{"origin":11233,"position":5},"title":"Shanghai selling pressure","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A sharp fall below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure on China's Shanghai Composite Index. Breach of support at 1950 is likely and would offer a target of 1800*. * Target calculation: 1950 - ( 2100 - 1950 ) = 1800 Michael Pettis summarizes the four\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Shanghai Composite Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-ssec.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-01-20-ssec.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11233","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11233\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}