{"id":11147,"date":"2014-10-21T02:49:23","date_gmt":"2014-10-21T06:49:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11147"},"modified":"2014-10-21T02:49:23","modified_gmt":"2014-10-21T06:49:23","slug":"another-bear-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/21\/another-bear-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Another bear trap?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex found support at $154, the long tail and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating buying pressure. Expect a test of $165. Reversal below $150 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $130. Continuation of the primary up-trend signals improvement for the broad economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Fedex\" alt=\"Fedex\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-fdx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 165 + ( 165 &#8211; 150 ) = 180<\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is testing its new resistance level at 1900\/1910. Last week&#8217;s long tail indicates short-term buying pressure but declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1910 would suggest that the correction is over, while penetration of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1900 &#8211; ( 2000 &#8211; 1900 ) = 1800<\/p>\n<p>Someone asked why I felt the correction was over, when there are so many bearish signs on the charts. My answer in brief was:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Strong support on the Dow and S&amp;P 500;<\/li>\n<li>Breach of descending trendline on the ASX 200;<\/li>\n<li>October sell-off nearing an end;<\/li>\n<li>US reporting season has started and fund managers will revert to accumulation of stronger performing stocks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I could have added that our market filters continue to indicate low to moderate risk.<\/p>\n<p>I am also suspicious of breaks of support after the bear traps of 2010 and 2011.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-spx2010.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Breaches are indicated by red arrows, recoveries by green.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"S&amp;P 500\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-spx2011.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Investors remain extremely skittish after the 2009 crash and likely to jump at shadows.<\/p>\n<p>CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has retreated below 20%, suggesting low risk typical of a bull market. Recovery above 20% is not likely, but a (significantly) higher trough would warn of rising risk.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"VIX Index\" alt=\"VIX Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-vix.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 rallied off support at 3700. Follow-through above 3900 would suggest another test of 4100. Recovery above 4000 and the descending trendline would strengthen the signal. Divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates mild selling pressure. Reversal below 3700 and the rising (secondary) trendline would warn of a test of primary support at 3400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" title=\"Nasdaq 100\" alt=\"Nasdaq 100\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-10-21-ndx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 3750 &#8211; ( 4100 &#8211; 3750 ) = 3400<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bellwether transport stock Fedex found support at $154, the long tail and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating buying pressure. Expect a test of $165. Reversal below $150 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $130. Continuation of the primary up-trend signals improvement for the broad economy. * Target calculation: &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/21\/another-bear-trap\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Another bear trap?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[64,615,1362,2401,3010],"class_list":["post-11147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-vix","tag-cboe-volatility-index","tag-fedex","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Another bear trap? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Another bear trap? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bellwether transport stock Fedex found support at $154, the long tail and rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating buying pressure. Expect a test of $165. Reversal below $150 is unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $130. 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This is supported by a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, signaling medium-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2400 is likely and would warn of another test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13763,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/19\/broad-market-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":11147,"position":1},"title":"Broad market rally","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 19, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Major indices across the US, Europe and Japan are displaying strong performance. China and India appear to be encountering stronger resistance, but should also be buoyed by the broad recovery. Bellwether transport stock Fedex (FDX) is headed for another test of resistance at $182\/$184. Breakout would signal a primary advance,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-18-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10539,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/05\/dow-and-fedex-find-support\/","url_meta":{"origin":11147,"position":2},"title":"Dow and Fedex find support","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 5, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing medium-term support at the December high of 16500. Respect of this line would indicate a healthy up-trend, while breach would warn of a correction to the primary trendline. Failure of primary support at 15400\/15600 remains unlikely, but would warn of reversal to a down-trend.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-05-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-05-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13768,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/04\/11\/footsie-breaks-7000\/","url_meta":{"origin":11147,"position":3},"title":"Footsie breaks 7000","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"London's FTSE 100 broke long-term resistance at its 1999 high, closing the week above 7000 and signaling a primary advance. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but the long-term target is 8000*. * Target calculation: 7000 + ( 7000 - 6000 ) = 8000 Global stocks, generally, recovered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FTSE 100","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-04-10-ftseq.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-04-10-ftseq.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-04-10-ftseq.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13780,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/30\/fedex-bounces-back\/","url_meta":{"origin":11147,"position":4},"title":"Fedex bounces back","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 30, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Next Portfolio Update The next update for S&P 500 and ASX200 Prime Momentum strategies will be on the weekend, so that investors can place trades on Monday, 3rd August 2015, the first trading day of the month. North America Bellwether transport stock Fedex respected primary support at $164, rallying strongly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fedex","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-30-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-30-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-30-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11428,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/23\/markets-back-on-track\/","url_meta":{"origin":11147,"position":5},"title":"Markets back on track","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 23, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Threat of a Russian collapse roiled markets in early December, but the immediate crisis now seems to have passed. Recovery of the S&P 500 above resistance at 2080 would indicate another advance , with a target of 2150*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs indicate long-term buying pressure. Reversal below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-23-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-23-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11147"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11147\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}