{"id":11103,"date":"2014-10-13T18:20:32","date_gmt":"2014-10-13T22:20:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=11103"},"modified":"2014-10-13T18:20:32","modified_gmt":"2014-10-13T22:20:32","slug":"robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/","title":{"rendered":"Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Jason Zweig writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Many analysts have warned lately that Prof. Shiller\u2019s long-term stock-pricing indicator [CAPE] is dangerously high by historical standards&#8230;..If only things were that simple, Prof. Shiller says. \u201cThe market is supposed to estimate the value of earnings,\u201d he explains, \u201cbut the value of the earnings depends on people\u2019s perception of what they can sell it again for\u201d to other investors. So the long-term average is \u201chighly psychological,\u201d he says. \u201cYou can\u2019t derive what it should be.\u201d Even though the CAPE measure looks back to 1871, using data that predates the S&amp;P 500, it is unstable. Over the 30 years ending in 1910, CAPE averaged 17; over the next three decades, 12.7; over the 30 years after that, 15.7. For the past three decades it has averaged 23.4. Today\u2019s level \u201cmight be high relative to history,\u201d Prof. Shiller says, \u201cbut how do we know that history hasn\u2019t changed?\u201d So, he says, CAPE \u201chas more probability of predicting actual declines or dramatic increases\u201d when the measure is at an \u201cextreme high or extreme low.\u201d &#8230;..Today\u2019s level, Prof. Shiller argues, isn\u2019t extreme enough to justify a strong conclusion. So, he says, he and his wife still have about 50% of their portfolio in stocks.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/moneybeat\/2014\/10\/10\/robert-shiller-on-what-to-watch-in-this-wild-market\/'>Robert Shiller on What to Watch in This Wild Market &#8211; MoneyBeat &#8211; WSJ<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jason Zweig writes: Many analysts have warned lately that Prof. Shiller\u2019s long-term stock-pricing indicator [CAPE] is dangerously high by historical standards&#8230;..If only things were that simple, Prof. Shiller says. \u201cThe market is supposed to estimate the value of earnings,\u201d he explains, \u201cbut the value of the earnings depends on people\u2019s perception of what they can &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[567,2979,3257],"class_list":["post-11103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-cape","tag-robert-shiller","tag-stock-market-pricing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Jason Zweig writes: Many analysts have warned lately that Prof. Shiller\u2019s long-term stock-pricing indicator [CAPE] is dangerously high by historical standards&#8230;..If only things were that simple, Prof. Shiller says. \u201cThe market is supposed to estimate the value of earnings,\u201d he explains, \u201cbut the value of the earnings depends on people\u2019s perception of what they can &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-10-13T22:20:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Robert Shiller maintains exposure to stocks | WSJ\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-10-13T22:20:32+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/13\/robert-shiller-maintains-exposure-to-stocks-wsj\/\"},\"wordCount\":227,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"CAPE\",\"Robert Shiller\",\"stock market pricing\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Markets\",\"US &amp; 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Average levels for CAPE have shifted over time, and one cannot rely solely on historic highs and lows as a measure of whether the market is over-bought or over-sold.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62182,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/26\/us-market-leading-indicators-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":11103,"position":1},"title":"US Market Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.55, with expanding\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62365,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/06\/us-leading-indicators-5\/","url_meta":{"origin":11103,"position":2},"title":"US Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 6, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market valuation levels. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead. Employment in cyclical sectors \u2014 Manufacturing, Construction, Transportation, and Warehousing \u2014 eased to 27.76\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/18\/us-pricing-continues-extreme\/","url_meta":{"origin":11103,"position":3},"title":"US Stock Pricing at Extreme","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market valuation levels. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62499,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/27\/us-bear-market-and-extreme-valuations\/","url_meta":{"origin":11103,"position":4},"title":"US bear market and extreme valuations","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market valuation levels. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive relative to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62286,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/16\/us-leading-indicators-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":11103,"position":5},"title":"US Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 40%, warning of a bear market ahead. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.54, indicating easy monetary conditions\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-06-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11103\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}