{"id":10657,"date":"2014-08-21T02:31:22","date_gmt":"2014-08-21T06:31:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10657"},"modified":"2014-08-21T02:31:22","modified_gmt":"2014-08-21T06:31:22","slug":"dollar-surges-as-crude-falls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/21\/dollar-surges-as-crude-falls\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar surges as crude falls"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Dollar surges<\/li>\n<li>Treasury yields rally, but the trend is down<\/li>\n<li>Crude oil prices fall<\/li>\n<li>Gold uncertainty continues<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Interest Rates and the Dollar<\/h3>\n<p>The Dollar Index followed through above resistance at 81.50, signaling a long-term advance to test the 2013 highs at 84.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below 81.50 is most unlikely, but would warn of another test of support at 80.00.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 81.50 &#8211; ( 81.50 &#8211; 79.00 ) = 84.00<\/p>\n<p>The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes recovered above support at 2.40 percent, but the primary trend is downward. Respect of the descending trendline is likely and reversal below 2.40 would confirm a decline to 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero strengthens the bear signal. Recovery above the descending trendline is unlikely, but would suggest a rally to 2.65\/2.70 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2.50 &#8211; ( 3.00 &#8211; 2.50 ) = 2.00<\/p>\n<p>There are two factors driving the fall in long-term interest rates. The first is <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2014\/08\/15\/us-treasury-unsure-exactly-how-much-us-debt-china-holds\/\">aggressive purchases of US treasuries by China<\/a> in order to maintain a weak yuan. The second is the abysmal state of the employment market when we look past the official unemployment figures. Employment levels for males in the 25 to 54 age group remain roughly 6% &mdash; and females 5% &mdash; below their previous high.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" title=\"Employment levels\" alt=\"Employment levels\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-16-employment.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Gold<\/h3>\n<p>Gold is consolidating in a triangle pattern, between $1200 and $1400\/ounce. Price action is now too close to the apex (&#8220;&gt;&#8221;) of the triangle for breakouts to be reliable, but breach of support at $1280 would test $1240, while breakout above $1320 would test $1350. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum close to zero continues to signal hesitancy. In the longer term, recovery above $1350 would indicate a primary up-trend, while breach of support at $1240\/$1250 would signal a down-trend. <\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1200 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1200 ) = 1000<\/p>\n<p>Declining crude prices may be contributing to lower inflation expectations and weaker gold demand (as an inflation hedge). Brent Crude breach of $99\/barrel would confirm a primary down-trend as would Nymex WTI crude below $92\/barrel.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"Gold and Crude\" title=\"Gold and Crude\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-21-crude.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dollar surges Treasury yields rally, but the trend is down Crude oil prices fall Gold uncertainty continues Interest Rates and the Dollar The Dollar Index followed through above resistance at 81.50, signaling a long-term advance to test the 2013 highs at 84.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. Reversal below 81.50 &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/21\/dollar-surges-as-crude-falls\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dollar surges as crude falls&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,9,35],"tags":[70,495,663,1073,1230,1442,1858,2528,3204],"class_list":["post-10657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-brent-crude","tag-china","tag-dollar-index","tag-employment-levels","tag-foreign-treasury-holdings","tag-interest-rates","tag-nymex-wti-crude","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dollar surges as crude falls - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollar surges as crude falls - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dollar surges Treasury yields rally, but the trend is down Crude oil prices fall Gold uncertainty continues Interest Rates and the Dollar The Dollar Index followed through above resistance at 81.50, signaling a long-term advance to test the 2013 highs at 84.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero strengthens the signal. 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Breach would confirm a primary decline with a target of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero strengthens the bear signal. Recovery\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10752,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/27\/dollar-surges-yields-fall-but-gold-hesitant\/","url_meta":{"origin":10657,"position":1},"title":"Dollar surges, yields fall but gold hesitant","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dollar Index continues its impressive advance. Expect resistance at the 2013 highs at 84.50. Reversal below 81.50 is most unlikely. * Target calculation: 81.50 - ( 81.50 - 79.00 ) = 84.00 The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is retracing to test its new resistance level at 2.40\/2.50 percent.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-27-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-27-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-27-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8937,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/13\/gold-hesitates-in-downward-trend\/","url_meta":{"origin":10657,"position":2},"title":"Gold hesitates in downward trend","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 13, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"The Gold Bugs Index, often a leading indicator of spot prices, is retracing to test the new resistance level at 210. Respect would confirm a decline to the 2008 low at 150. Recovery above 280 \u2014 and 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossover to above zero \u2014 would signal reversal to a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8823,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/12\/04\/gold-support-at-1200\/","url_meta":{"origin":10657,"position":3},"title":"Gold support at $1200","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 4, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold The long tail on this week's candle reflects buying support for spot gold at $1200\/ounce. Recovery above $1250 would suggest another rally to $1350. But the 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero warns of a down-trend. And breach of primary support at $1200 would confirm. * Target calculation: 1250\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Commodities&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Commodities","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/commodities-gold-commodities\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7927,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/19\/gold-falls-while-treasury-yields-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":10657,"position":4},"title":"Gold falls while Treasury yields rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gold is testing primary support at $1340\/ounce. Breach of support would signal another primary decline, while follow-through below $1320 would confirm. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a healthy primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $1100*. * Target calculation: 1300 - ( 1500 -\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10388,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/24\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":10657,"position":5},"title":"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields weaken further The Dollar continues to strengthen Inflation target remains at 2% p.a. Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10657\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}