{"id":10459,"date":"2014-07-30T20:56:44","date_gmt":"2014-07-31T00:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10459"},"modified":"2014-07-30T20:56:44","modified_gmt":"2014-07-31T00:56:44","slug":"shilling-big-banks-shift-to-lower-gear-the-big-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/30\/shilling-big-banks-shift-to-lower-gear-the-big-picture\/","title":{"rendered":"Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear | The Big Picture"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gary Shilling describes how US regulators are getting tough with big banks:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\n<strong>Break-Up<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Like unscrambling an egg, it\u2019s hard to envision how big banks with many, many activities could be split up. But, of course, one of the arguments for doing so is they\u2019re too big and too complicated for one CEO to manage. Still, there is the example of the U.K., which plans to separate deposit-taking business from riskier investment banking activities \u2013 in effect, recreating Glass-Steagall.<\/p>\n<p>In any event, among others, Phil Purcell believes that \u201cfrom a shareholder point of view, it\u2019s crystal clear these enterprises are worth more broken up than they are together.\u201d This argument is supported by the reality that Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley stocks are all selling below their book value Chart 5. In contrast, most regional banks sell well above book value.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"345\" title=\"Bank Price-to-Book Ratios\" alt=\"Bank Price-to-Book Ratios\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/d21uq3hx4esec9.cloudfront.net\/uploads\/newsletters\/Image_5_20140730_OTB.gif?resize=525%2C345\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Push Back<\/strong><br \/>\nNot surprising, current leaders of major banks have pushed back against proposals to break them up. They maintain that at smaller sizes, they would not be able to provide needed financial services. Also, they state, that would put them at a competitive disadvantage to foreign banks that would move onto their turf.<\/p>\n<p>The basic reality, however, is that the CEOs of big banks don\u2019t want to manage commercial spread lenders that take deposits and make loans and also engage in other traditional banking activities like asset management. They want to run growth companies that use leverage as their route to success. Hence, their zeal for off-balance sheet vehicles, proprietary trading, derivative origination and trading, etc. That\u2019s where the big 20% to 30% returns lie \u2013 compared to 10% to 15% for spread lending \u2013 but so too do the big risks.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Capital Restoration<\/strong><br \/>\n&#8230;.the vast majority of banks, big and small, have restored their capital&#8230;.Nevertheless, the FDIC and Federal Reserve are planning a new \u201cleverage ratio\u201d schedule that would require the eight largest \u201cSystemically Important Banks\u201d to maintain loss-absorbing capital equal to at least 5% of their assets and their FDIC-insured bank subdivisions would have to keep a minimum leverage ratio of 6%. This compares with 3% under the international Basel III schedule. Six of these eight largest banks would need to tie up more capital. Also, regulators may impose additional capital requirements for these \u201cSystemically Important Banks\u201d and more for banks involved in volatile markets for short-term borrowing and lending. The Fed also wants the stricter capital requirements to be met by 2017, two years earlier than the international agreement deadline&#8230;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>CEO remuneration is largely driven by bank size rather than profitability, so you can expect strong resistance to any move to break up too-big-to-fail banks. Restricting bank involvement in riskier enterprises &#8212; as with UK plans to separate deposit-taking business from riskier investment banking activities &#8212; may be an easier path to protect taxpayers. Especially when coupled with increased capital requirements to reduce leverage.<\/p>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.ritholtz.com\/blog\/2014\/07\/shilling-big-banks-shift-to-lower-gear\/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&#038;utm_campaign=ee896cd92c-big_picture_email&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_term=0_662cf1de86-ee896cd92c-39110581'>Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear | The Big Picture<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gary Shilling describes how US regulators are getting tough with big banks: Break-Up Like unscrambling an egg, it\u2019s hard to envision how big banks with many, many activities could be split up. But, of course, one of the arguments for doing so is they\u2019re too big and too complicated for one CEO to manage. Still, &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/30\/shilling-big-banks-shift-to-lower-gear-the-big-picture\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear | The Big Picture&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[344,346,1069,1552,2090,3434],"class_list":["post-10459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bank-break-ups","tag-bank-capital-adequacy","tag-dodd-frank-act","tag-glass-steagall","tag-leverage-ratio","tag-too-big-to-fail"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear | The Big Picture - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Shilling: Big Banks Shift to Lower Gear | The Big Picture - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gary Shilling describes how US regulators are getting tough with big banks: Break-Up Like unscrambling an egg, it\u2019s hard to envision how big banks with many, many activities could be split up. But, of course, one of the arguments for doing so is they\u2019re too big and too complicated for one CEO to manage. 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Twenty years ago the ten largest banks on the Street held 10 percent of America\u2019s total bank assets. Now they hold over 70 percent. ....I doubt the President will be condemning the Street\u2019s antics, or calling for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3357,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/30\/bill-moyers-how-power-and-influence-helped-big-banks-rewrite-the-rules-of-our-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":10459,"position":1},"title":"Bill Moyers: How power and influence helped big banks rewrite the rules of our economy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 30, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Bill Moyers talks with former Citigroup Chairman John Reed and former Senator Byron Dorgan to explore a momentous instance: how the mid-90's merger of Citicorp and Travelers Group -- with help from Alan Greenspan, Robert Rubin and Bill Clinton -- brought down the Glass-Steagall Act and sowed the seeds of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4362,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/05\/15\/dimon-may-be-stupid-but-hes-right-on-banks-marketwatch\/","url_meta":{"origin":10459,"position":2},"title":"Dimon may be \u2018stupid,\u2019 but he\u2019s right on banks &#8211; MarketWatch","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"David Weidner: A return to Glass-Steagall in the U.S. would effectively force the world to separate traditional banking from casino banking. That system would be attractive to both sides. The banking system that holds our loans, our deposits, debts and assets would be separate from a Wild West free market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7830,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/01\/too-big-to-fail-qa-get-the-facts-sober-look\/","url_meta":{"origin":10459,"position":3},"title":"Too-big-to-fail Q&#038;A. Get the facts | Sober Look","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting pro-bank piece by Sober Look. I have added my comments in italics. The debate around \"too big to fail\" of the US banking system is often infused with political rhetoric and media hype. Let's go through some Q&A on the subject and discuss the facts. Q: Did large banks\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/11\/time-to-clean-up-the-banks\/","url_meta":{"origin":10459,"position":4},"title":"Time to clean up the Banks","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 11, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Gabriele Steinhauser at WSJ writes: A group of key crisis managers believes cleaning up weak banks is the only way to get Europe's economy to grow again, after superlow interest rates and large-scale liquidity injections from the ECB have failed to produce the desired results. These officials see continued doubts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15591,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/11\/new-bailouts-prove-too-big-to-fail-is-alive-and-well-wsj\/","url_meta":{"origin":10459,"position":5},"title":"New Bailouts Prove \u2018Too Big to Fail\u2019 Is Alive and Well | WSJ","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 11, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Neel Kashkari: Three strikeouts in four at bats would be barely acceptable in baseball. For a policy designed to prevent taxpayer bailouts, it\u2019s an undeniable defeat. In the past few weeks, four European bank failures have demonstrated that a signature feature of the postcrisis regulatory regime simply cannot protect\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10459","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10459"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10459\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10459"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10459"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10459"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}