{"id":10434,"date":"2014-07-28T22:26:32","date_gmt":"2014-07-29T02:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10434"},"modified":"2014-07-28T22:26:32","modified_gmt":"2014-07-29T02:26:32","slug":"platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/","title":{"rendered":"Platinum founder warns on property \u201cact of faith\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/screenhunter_3505-jul-29-08-50\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-188620\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-188620\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3505-Jul.-29-08.50-200x194.jpg?resize=200%2C194\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_3505 Jul. 29 08.50\" height=\"194\" width=\"200\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/leith-van-onselen\/\">Leith van Onselen<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>The founder of Platinum Asset Management, billionaire investor Kerr Neilson, has released an <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.platinum.com.au\/Journal\/Fundamentals-of-Investing\/Property-Investing\/\">interesting report<\/a> warning about Australia\u2019s frothy house price valuations and the risks of a correction once <em>\u201cconditions change, [and] a lot of the assumptions are found wanting\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>The report highlights four \u201cfacts\u201d about Australian housing:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>1. Returns from housing investment are often exaggerated and flattered by inflation.<br \/>\n2. Holding costs of rates, local taxes and repairs are estimated to absorb about half of current rental yields.<br \/>\n3. Long-term values are determined by affordability (wages + interest rates).<br \/>\n4. To be optimistic about residential property prices rising in general much faster than inflation is a supreme act of faith.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It then goes on to examine each of these facts.<\/p>\n<p>On returns, the report notes that <em>\u201cthe rise in the price of an average home in Australia\u2026[has] been about 7% a year since 1986. In dollar terms, the average existing house has risen in value by 6.3 times over the last 27 years. No wonder most people love the housing market!\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>But rental returns have gotten progressively poor:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\u2026we earn a starting yield of say 4% on a rented-out home or if you live in it, the equivalent to what you do not have to pay in rent. But again, looking at the Bureau of Statistics numbers, they calculate that your annual outgoings on a property are around 2%. This takes the shape of repairs and maintenance, rates and taxes, and other fees. This therefore reduces your rental return to 2%, and what if it is vacant from time to time?<\/p>\n<p>And the prospect for future solid capital growth is low due to poor affordability:<\/p>\n<p>\u2026the last 20 or so years has been exceptional. Australian wages have grown pretty consistently at just under 3% a year since 1994 \u2013 that is an increase of about 1% a year in real terms.<\/p>\n<p>Affordability is what sets house prices and this has two components: what you earn and the cost of the monthly mortgage payment (interest rates).<\/p>\n<p>\u2026even though interest rates have progressively dropped, interest payments today absorb 9% of the average income, having earlier been only 6% of disposable income.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/screenhunter_3506-jul-29-09-21\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-188678\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-188678\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3506-Jul.-29-09.21-660x417.jpg?resize=525%2C332\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_3506 Jul. 29 09.21\" height=\"332\" width=\"525\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Today, houses cost over four times the average household\u2019s yearly disposable income. At the beginning of the 1990s, this ratio was only about three times household incomes. As the chart over shows, this looks like the peak.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/screenhunter_3507-jul-29-09-22\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-188690\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-188690\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3507-Jul.-29-09.22-660x420.jpg?resize=525%2C334\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_3507 Jul. 29 09.22\" height=\"334\" width=\"525\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Finally, the report argues that for Australian home prices to significantly outpace inflation over the next ten years, as they have in the past, <em>\u201cwould require a remarkable set of circumstances\u201d<\/em>, namely a combination of:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>1. Continuing low or lower interest rates.<br \/>\n2. Willingness to live with more debt.<br \/>\n3. Household income being bolstered by greater participation in the income earning workforce.<br \/>\n4. Average wages growing faster than the CPI.<\/p>\n<p>The last point is improbable seeing that wages and the CPI have a very stable relationship, while the other points are not very likely.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Reproduced with kind permission from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/\" title=\"Macrobusiness: Platinum founder warns on property \u201cact of faith\u201d\" target=\"_blank\">Macrobusiness<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Leith van Onselen The founder of Platinum Asset Management, billionaire investor Kerr Neilson, has released an interesting report warning about Australia\u2019s frothy house price valuations and the risks of a correction once \u201cconditions change, [and] a lot of the assumptions are found wanting\u201d. The report highlights four \u201cfacts\u201d about Australian housing: 1. Returns from &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/platinum-founder-warns-on-property-act-of-faith\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Platinum founder warns on property \u201cact of faith\u201d&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,10],"tags":[1041,1724,1726,1828,1858],"class_list":["post-10434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-housing-economy","tag-disposable-income","tag-house-prices","tag-household-debt","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Platinum founder warns on property \u201cact of faith\u201d - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Platinum founder warns on property \u201cact of faith\u201d - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Leith van Onselen The founder of Platinum Asset Management, billionaire investor Kerr Neilson, has released an interesting report warning about Australia\u2019s frothy house price valuations and the risks of a correction once \u201cconditions change, [and] a lot of the assumptions are found wanting\u201d. 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They\u2019ve learned from the US collapse that seizing real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":35919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/27\/australia-q2-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":10434,"position":1},"title":"Australia Q2 CPI and the cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac\u2019s forecast of 1.7%. .....This increase was the second highest since the introduction of the GST and follows on from a 2.1% increase in the March quarter. The annual pace lifted from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI: Discretionary & Non-Discretionary","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":32710,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/11\/australia-consumer-sentiment-and-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10434,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Consumer sentiment and inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 11, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 5.6% to 90.4 in May. Readings below 90 normally only occur during major economic contractions like the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Bill Evans from Westpac: Two stunning developments are clearly unnerving consumers. Firstly, on April\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Consumer Sentiment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-10-aus-sentiment2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5952,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/31\/should-the-fed-be-targeting-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10434,"position":3},"title":"Why the Fed should not target inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Scott Sumner, Professor of Economics at Bentley University, proposes that the Fed target nominal growth in GDP (\"NGDP\") rather than inflation as Ben Bernanke has long advocated: \"Even he [Bernanke] must be surprised and disappointed with how poorly [inflation targeting] worked during the recent crisis.\" The primary problem, Sumner points\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/12\/feds-numerical-thresholds-are-a-bad-idea\/","url_meta":{"origin":10434,"position":4},"title":"Fed\u2019s numerical thresholds are a bad idea","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed effectively tied its monetary policy to a balloon bobbing in the wind. Pedro da Costa writes on Reuters: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday took the unprecedented step of tying its low rate policy directly to unemployment, saying it will keep rates near rock bottom until the jobless rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15587,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/07\/australia-faces-headwinds\/","url_meta":{"origin":10434,"position":5},"title":"Australia faces headwinds","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 7, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian wage rate growth, on the other hand, is declining. is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom. Source: RBA & ABS As is inflation. Source: RBA & ABS Growth in Household Disposable Income and Consumption. Source: RBA & ABS And Banks return\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10434\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}