{"id":10430,"date":"2014-07-28T21:52:51","date_gmt":"2014-07-29T01:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10430"},"modified":"2014-07-28T21:52:51","modified_gmt":"2014-07-29T01:52:51","slug":"is-unemployment-really-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/","title":{"rendered":"Is unemployment really falling?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;natural unemployment rate&#8221; of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well?<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" lang=\"en\">\n<p>Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed&#039;s measure of  &quot;natural&quot; unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/t.co\/zq2fxtcHLt\">pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SoberLook\/statuses\/493846469947174912\">July 28, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Not if we consider the participation rate, plotted below as the ratio of non-farm employment to total population.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"Employment Participation Rate\" title=\"Employment Participation Rate\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Participation peaked in 2000 at close to 0.47 (or 47%) after climbing for several decades with increased involvement of women in the workforce. But the ratio fell to 0.42 post-GFC and has only recovered to 0.435. We are still 3.5% below the high from 14 years ago.<\/p>\n<p>When we focus on male employment, ages 25 to 54, we exclude several obscuring factors:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>the rising participation rate of women;<\/li>\n<li>an increasing <em>baby-boomer<\/em> retiree population; and<\/li>\n<li>changes in the student population under 25.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"Employment Rate Men 25 to 54\" title=\"Employment Rate Men 25 to 54\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-men-25to54.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart still displays a dramatic long-term fall.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;natural unemployment rate&#8221; of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well? Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed&#039;s measure of &quot;natural&quot; unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years &#8211; pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt &mdash; SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014 Not if we consider the participation rate, plotted &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Is unemployment really falling?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[46,34],"tags":[2418,2608,3531],"class_list":["post-10430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-natural-unemployment-rate","tag-participation-rate","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Is unemployment really falling? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is unemployment really falling? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;natural unemployment rate&#8221; of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well? Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed&#039;s measure of &quot;natural&quot; unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years &#8211; pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt &mdash; SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014 Not if we consider the participation rate, plotted &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Is unemployment really falling?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-07-29T01:52:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Is unemployment really falling?\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-07-29T01:52:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":152,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2014\\\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png\",\"keywords\":[\"natural unemployment rate\",\"participation rate\",\"Unemployment\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/\",\"name\":\"Is unemployment really falling? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2014\\\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-07-29T01:52:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2014\\\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2014\\\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2014\\\/07\\\/28\\\/is-unemployment-really-falling\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Is unemployment really falling?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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But our real GDP estimates, based on weekly hours worked, show an April recovery to 3.46% (annualized) after an erratic first quarter that averaged 2.24%. That is in line with 3.5% in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"GDPNow","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-06-gdpnow.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":38490,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/11\/03\/fed-hikes-now-pain-comes-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":10430,"position":1},"title":"Fed hikes now, pain comes later","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 3, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 75 basis point increase in the Fed funds target rate at his post-FOMC press conference today: \"Today, the FOMC raised our policy interest rate by 75 basis points, and we continue to anticipate that ongoing increases will be appropriate. We are moving our policy\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-11-02-ffr-hike.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/extraordinary-times-of-low-unemployment-and-low-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10430,"position":2},"title":"Extraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Unemployment fell to 3.7% for September, well below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. This normally signifies a tightening labor market, a precursor to higher inflation. But growth in average hourly earnings dipped slightly, to 2.75% for the past 12 months. Underlying inflationary forces remain subdued. As Fed Chairman Powell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61087,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/20\/asx-200-falls-as-outlook-brightens\/","url_meta":{"origin":10430,"position":3},"title":"ASX 200 falls as outlook brightens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The six-month annualized growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index rose to a more than two-year high, indicating a \"gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge,\" according to Matthew Hassan at Westpac. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in January 2025, but the trend remained at 4.0%.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-20-aus-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31033,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/02\/18\/inflationary-pressures-to-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":10430,"position":4},"title":"Fed monetary policy and the stagflation threat","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 18, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"January retail sales (excluding motor vehicles and parts) are still way above trend -- at $517 billion compared to $445 billion -- indicating continued upward pressure on consumer prices. Despite buoyant retail sales, consumer sentiment has fallen to recession levels. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey fell below 70\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Retail Sales","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-retail.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-retail.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-02-18-retail.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":15135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/09\/inflation-surges\/","url_meta":{"origin":10430,"position":5},"title":"Inflation surges","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Inflation is rising, with CPI climbing steeply above the Fed's 2% target. But core CPI excluding energy and food remains stable. Job gains were the lowest since May 2016. But the unemployment rate fell to a low 4.5%. Hourly wage rate growth has eased below 2.5%, suggesting that underlying inflationary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10430\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}