{"id":10430,"date":"2014-07-28T21:52:51","date_gmt":"2014-07-29T01:52:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10430"},"modified":"2014-07-28T21:52:51","modified_gmt":"2014-07-29T01:52:51","slug":"is-unemployment-really-falling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/","title":{"rendered":"Is unemployment really falling?"},"content":{"rendered":"

US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed’s “natural unemployment rate” of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well?<\/p>\n

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Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed's measure of "natural" unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years – pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt<\/a><\/p>\n

— SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Not if we consider the participation rate, plotted below as the ratio of non-farm employment to total population.<\/p>\n

\"Employment<\/p>\n

Participation peaked in 2000 at close to 0.47 (or 47%) after climbing for several decades with increased involvement of women in the workforce. But the ratio fell to 0.42 post-GFC and has only recovered to 0.435. We are still 3.5% below the high from 14 years ago.<\/p>\n

When we focus on male employment, ages 25 to 54, we exclude several obscuring factors:<\/p>\n