{"id":10388,"date":"2014-07-24T01:25:34","date_gmt":"2014-07-24T05:25:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10388"},"modified":"2014-07-24T01:25:34","modified_gmt":"2014-07-24T05:25:34","slug":"gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/24\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li>Treasury yields weaken further<\/li>\n<li>The Dollar continues to strengthen<\/li>\n<li>Inflation target remains at 2% p.a.<\/li>\n<li>Gold retreats<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h3>Interest Rates and the Dollar<\/h3>\n<p>The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Recovery above 2.65 is unlikely, but would indicate the correction is over, with a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" title=\"10-Year Treasury Yields\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-tnx.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2.50 &#8211; ( 3.00 &#8211; 2.50 ) = 2.00<\/p>\n<p>The Dollar Index followed-through above 80.50 and is headed for another test of 81.00. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 81.00 would strengthen the signal; and 81.50 would confirm. Breach of 80.00 is unlikely at present, but would warn of another test of primary support at 79.00.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" title=\"Dollar Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-dxy.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Low interest rates and a stronger dollar suggest inflation expectations are falling, but this is not yet evident on the TIPS spread. The 5-year Breakeven rate (5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation-Indexed Yield) remains at 2.0 percent.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Indexed (TIPS) Yield\" title=\"5-Year Treasury Yield minus 5-Year Inflation Indexed (TIPS) Yield\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-inflation.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<h3>Gold<\/h3>\n<p>Gold is nonetheless falling, in line with weaker inflation expectations. Breach of short-term support at $1295\/$1300 would test $1240\/$1250. And breach of $1240 would signal another primary decline, with an intermediate target of $1100*. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Momentum around zero, however, suggests hesitancy, with no strong trend. Recovery above $1350 is unlikely at present, but would indicate another test of $1400\/$1420.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" title=\"Spot Gold\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-gold.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 1250 &#8211; ( 1400 &#8211; 1250 ) = 1100<\/p>\n<p>When we compare long-term crude prices (Brent Crude) to gold, it is evident that crude prices tend to lead and gold to follow. The main reason is the impact that higher crude prices have on inflation, increasing demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Crude prices currently remain high, but it remains to be seen whether gold will follow as usual.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"Gold and Crude\" title=\"Gold and Crude\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-gold-crude.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold prices adjusted for inflation suggest the opposite. There are two enormous spikes on the chart, both flagging times of great financial uncertainty. The first is spiraling inflation of the early 1980s and the second is the all-in balance sheet expansion (also known as quantitative easing) by central banks after the global financial crisis. Gold prices remain elevated and are likely to fall further as central banks curtail expansion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" width=\"525\" height=\"349\" alt=\"Gold and CPI\" title=\"Gold and CPI\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-24-gold-cpi.png?resize=525%2C349&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Treasury yields weaken further The Dollar continues to strengthen Inflation target remains at 2% p.a. Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Recovery &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/24\/gold-retreats-as-dollar-strengthens-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,9,35],"tags":[70,90,93,495,1073,3204],"class_list":["post-10388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yields","tag-5-year-breakeven-rate","tag-5-year-inflation-indexed-yield","tag-brent-crude","tag-dollar-index","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold retreats as Dollar strengthens - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Treasury yields weaken further The Dollar continues to strengthen Inflation target remains at 2% p.a. Gold retreats Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke support at 2.50 percent, indicating a test of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. 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Failure would indicate a decline to 2.00 percent; follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10603,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/08\/14\/strong-dollar-weakens-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":10388,"position":1},"title":"Strong Dollar weakens gold","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"August 14, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields decline Dollar strengthens Crude oil weakens Gold hesitates Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is testing support at 2.40 percent. Breach would confirm a primary decline with a target of 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding below zero strengthens the bear signal. Recovery\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-08-14-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10215,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/02\/gold-rallies-as-inflation-expectations-rise\/","url_meta":{"origin":10388,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies as inflation expectations rise","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Overview: Treasury yields are recovering Inflation expectations rise The Dollar weakens Gold rallies Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found support at 2.50 percent. Recovery above 2.65 would suggest the correction is over, offering a medium-term target of 2.80 and long-term of 3.00 percent. 13-Week\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-03-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10257,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/09\/gold-strengthens-on-dollar-weakness\/","url_meta":{"origin":10388,"position":3},"title":"Gold strengthens on Dollar weakness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 9, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Treasury yields weaken The Dollar continues to test long-term support Gold is strengthening Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is again testing support at 2.50 percent. Failure would indicate a decline to 2.00 percent. Follow-through below 2.40 would confirm. Market expectations favor low interest rates\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9995,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/06\/10\/gold-bearish-as-dollar-base-strengthens\/","url_meta":{"origin":10388,"position":4},"title":"Gold bearish as dollar base strengthens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 10, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Overview: Treasury yields recover The Dollar establishes a base Gold bearish Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes made a false break through primary support at 2.50 percent, before recovering to 2.60 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero continues to suggest weakness. Recovery above 2.80 remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-10-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-10-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-10-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":10136,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/06\/26\/gold-rallies-as-the-dollar-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":10388,"position":5},"title":"Gold rallies as the Dollar weakens","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Overview: Treasury yields weaken The Dollar weakens Gold rallies Interest Rates and the Dollar The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes is headed for another test of primary support at 2.50 percent. Follow-through below 2.40 would would signal a decline to 2.00 percent*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum continues below zero, indicating weakness.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Fixed Income&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-26-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-26-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-06-26-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10388\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}