{"id":10300,"date":"2014-07-14T22:20:57","date_gmt":"2014-07-15T02:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10300"},"modified":"2014-07-14T22:20:57","modified_gmt":"2014-07-15T02:20:57","slug":"pickering-australian-housing-severely-overvalued","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/14\/pickering-australian-housing-severely-overvalued\/","title":{"rendered":"Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting view from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/leith-van-onselen\/\">Leith van Onselen<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-176876\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3304-Jul.-15-10.21-200x200.jpg?resize=200%2C200\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_3304 Jul. 15 10.21\" width=\"200\" height=\"200\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Business Spectator&#8217;s<\/em> Callam Pickering has produced an <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.businessspectator.com.au\/article\/2014\/7\/15\/property\/great-australian-housing-rip\">interesting assessment<\/a> of the RBA&#8217;s new research paper, which attempts to determine whether Australian homes are overvalued versus renting.<\/p>\n<p>Like my analysis <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/no-rba-australian-housing-is-not-fairly-valued\/\">posted earlier<\/a>, Pickering also concludes that Australian housing is significantly overvalued given the likely prospects for incomes and capital growth; although how he arrives at his conclusion is a little different:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>My general view is that Australians are frequently ripped off when purchasing a home. A combination of poor housing policy&#8230; combined with housing supply restrictions&#8230; have resulted in arguably the most expensive housing stock in the world&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>[The RBA] find that the decision to buy or rent is highly sensitive to one\u2019s expectations regarding capital appreciation. Their base scenario assumes that house prices will continue to grow at their post-1955 average, during which time real house prices rose by 2.4 per cent annually. Under this scenario, housing is perfectly priced compared with rents.<\/p>\n<p>But as I\u2019ve argued frequently it is unreasonable to assume that future house price growth will match past gains&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The sensitivity of their analysis to various price growth assumptions is contained in the graph below.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/pickering-australian-housing-severly-overvalued\/screenhunter_3305-jul-15-10-31\/\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-176889\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-176889\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3305-Jul.-15-10.31.jpg?resize=525%2C437\" alt=\"ScreenHunter_3305 Jul. 15 10.31\" width=\"525\" height=\"437\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Structural shifts in the Australian economy resulting from an ageing population and a declining terms of trade, combined with the Chinese economy slowing, will weigh on income and price growth, while high levels of indebtedness should place a speed limit on potential growth.<\/p>\n<p>The most interesting scenario considered by Fox and Tulip is the scenario where real house prices grow at the rate of household income growth (denoted in the graph by \u201cHHDY\u201d). This scenario is perhaps a little optimistic (the risks to income growth are on the downside) but it approximates our current reality&#8230; Under this scenario, housing is overvalued by around 20 per cent&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>[The RBA research] using plausible assumptions for price growth, suggests that housing is severely overvalued in Australia and many Australians are getting ripped off.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Spot on and well argued.<\/p>\n<p>Reproduced with kind permission from <a href=\"www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/07\/pickering-australian-housing-severly-overvalued\/\" title=\"Macrobusiness: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d\" target=\"_blank\">Macrobusiness<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting view from Leith van Onselen: Business Spectator&#8217;s Callam Pickering has produced an interesting assessment of the RBA&#8217;s new research paper, which attempts to determine whether Australian homes are overvalued versus renting. Like my analysis posted earlier, Pickering also concludes that Australian housing is significantly overvalued given the likely prospects for incomes and capital growth; &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/14\/pickering-australian-housing-severely-overvalued\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,10],"tags":[290,576,1732,2912],"class_list":["post-10300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-housing-economy","tag-australia","tag-capital-appreciation","tag-housing","tag-rent-or-buy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pickering: Australian housing \u201cseverely overvalued\u201d - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Interesting view from Leith van Onselen: Business Spectator&#8217;s Callam Pickering has produced an interesting assessment of the RBA&#8217;s new research paper, which attempts to determine whether Australian homes are overvalued versus renting. 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Mr Lawson is the global chief \u00adeconomist of Standard Life, a massive British fund manager\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":18264,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/05\/24\/xero-deep-in-overvalued-territory-xro\/","url_meta":{"origin":10300,"position":1},"title":"Xero deep in overvalued territory (XRO)","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 24, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"From Morningstar today: \"Cloud-based accounting software firm Xero has booked a strong result but the WAAAX club member remains deep in overvalued territory, says Morningstar. Xero this week reported a solid first half 2019 result, which included a 36 per cent boost in revenue and a 31 per cent jump\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/03\/09\/dads-army-fumbles-housing-affordability-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":10300,"position":2},"title":"Dad\u2019s Army fumbles housing affordability | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 9, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"By Leith van Onselen \u2014 Published with kind permission from Macrobusiness. After his shoddy effort yesterday defending Australia\u2019s giant superannuation rort,\u00a0Dad\u2019s Army\u2019s Robert Gottliebsen (\u201cGotti\u201d), has backed Treasurer Hockey\u2019s proposal to allow young home buyers to raid their superannuation accounts to purchase their first home: Joe Hockey\u2019s idea to allow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Broken Window","src":"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/4\/4c\/Young_woman_and_broken_window-2.jpg","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":15368,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/30\/why-were-selling-all-shares-and-handing-cash-back-to-investors-philip-parker-livewire\/","url_meta":{"origin":10300,"position":3},"title":"Why we&#8217;re selling all shares and handing cash back to investors &#8211; Philip Parker | Livewire","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 30, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Philip Parker - veteran fund manager decides to sell all shares in Altair\u2019s Trusts to hand back cash and hands back mandates for SMA\/IMA\u2019s and also sells MDA family office mandates to cash from shares. Why? AUSTRALIAN EAST COAST PROPERTY MARKET BUBBLE AND THE IMPENDING CORRECTION CHINA PROPERTY AND DEBT\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10408,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/27\/world-wakes-to-apra-paralysis-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":10300,"position":4},"title":"World wakes to APRA paralysis | Macrobusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Posted by Houses & Holes: Bloomberg has a penetrating piece today hammering RBA\/APRA complacency on house prices, which will be read far and wide in global markets (as well as MB is!): Central banks from Scandinavia to the U.K. to\u00a0New Zealand\u00a0are sounding the alarm about soaring mortgage debt and trying\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ScreenHunter_3294 Jul. 14 11.51","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/ScreenHunter_3294-Jul.-14-11.511.jpg?resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":8450,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/09\/18\/apra-australian-banking-system-more-sound\/","url_meta":{"origin":10300,"position":5},"title":"APRA: Australian banking system &#8216;more sound&#8217;","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 18, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting choice of words: [Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman John Laker] said the Australian banking system was more sound than it was five or six years ago.\"We know that because we managed to negotiate the financial crisis without the fallout for our financial systems,\" he said.\"The banking sector is holding\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10300","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10300"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10300\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10300"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10300"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10300"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}