{"id":1024,"date":"2015-08-18T03:28:10","date_gmt":"2015-08-18T03:28:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchandinvestment.com\/?p=1024"},"modified":"2015-08-18T03:28:10","modified_gmt":"2015-08-18T03:28:10","slug":"falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/18\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Fedex\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-fdx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fedex\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this, declining since late 2014.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\"   title=\"Freight Transportation Services Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-freight.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Freight Transportation Services Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But the LoDI Index contradicts, continuing its climb.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\"   title=\"LoDI Index\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-lodi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"LoDI Index\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#889999;\"><p>The LoDI Index uses linear regression analysis to combine cargo volume data from rail, barge, air, and truck transit, along with various economic factors. The resulting indicator is designed to predict upcoming changes in the level of logistics and distribution activity in the US and is represented by a value between 1 and 100. An index at or above 50 represents a healthy level of activity in the industry.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Growth in retail trade (excluding Motor Vehicles, Gasoline and Spares) also declined for the last two quarters but remains above core CPI.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Retail Trade ex-Gasoline, Motor Vehicles and Spares\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-retail.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Retail Trade ex-Gasoline, Motor Vehicles and Spares\" \/><\/p>\n<p>On a positive note, however, light motor vehicle sales are climbing.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Light Motor Vehicle Sales\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-lightvehicles.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Light Motor Vehicle Sales\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New housing starts are edging upwards while building permits jumped sharply, indicating further increases.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Housing Starts and Building Permits\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-housing.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Housing Starts and Building Permits\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And overall construction spending is steadily rising.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" title=\"Construction Spending\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-construction.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Construction Spending\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Solid rises in spending on durables suggests further employment growth. This makes me reasonably confident that retail sales and freight\/transport activity will recover. All the same, it would pay to keep a weather eye on Fedex and the transport indices.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity. The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this, declining since late 2014. But &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/18\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,57],"tags":[793,1362,1472,1747,2108,2136,2945],"class_list":["post-1024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights","category-stock-markets","tag-construction-spending","tag-fedex","tag-freight-transportation-services-index","tag-housing-starts-and-building-permits","tag-light-motor-vehicle-sales","tag-lodi-index","tag-retail-trade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The rally in bellwether transport stock Fedex was short-lived and it is once again testing primary support at $164. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity. The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this, declining since late 2014. But &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/08\/18\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-08-18T03:28:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-08-18-fdx.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern?\",\"datePublished\":\"2015-08-18T03:28:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":230,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2015\\\/2015-08-18-fdx.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Construction Spending\",\"Fedex\",\"Freight Transportation Services Index\",\"Housing Starts and Building Permits\",\"Light Motor Vehicle Sales\",\"LoDI Index\",\"Retail Trade\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Market Insights\",\"Stock Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2015\\\/08\\\/18\\\/falling-retail-sales-and-freight-activity-cause-for-concern-2\\\/\",\"name\":\"Falling retail sales and freight activity: Cause for concern? 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Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm, suggesting a broad slow-down in US economic activity. The Freight Transportation Services Index reinforces this,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":12336,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/09\/14\/not-much-wrong-with-the-us-economy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1024,"position":1},"title":"Not much wrong with the US economy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Profit margins in the US are contracting, with the second quarter showing a 6.0% decine in profit per unit of real gross value added (Nonfinancial). Contraction of greater than 10% would be cause for concern, but we need to dig a little deeper. Earnings per share for the S&P 500\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Declining US Profit Per Unit of Real Gross Value Added (Nonfinancial)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-09-14-profitmargins.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13779,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/24\/transports-deflate\/","url_meta":{"origin":1024,"position":2},"title":"Transports deflate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 24, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Bellwether transport stock Fedex is testing primary support at $164 on the weekly chart. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of a reversal. Breach of $164 would signal a primary down-trend \u2014 a warning that economic activity is contracting. The LoDI National Index from University of Louisville and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nasdaq 100","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-07-24-fdx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19819,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/02\/22\/sp-500-freight-and-manufacturing-slow-but-housing-lifts\/","url_meta":{"origin":1024,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Freight and manufacturing down but housing up","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"An engulfing candle on the weekly S&P 500 chart, together with a lower peak on the Trend Index, both warn of short-term selling pressure. Reversal below 3320 would suggest another test of 3200. But the index remains in a strong primary up-trend. A long-term (log-scale) chart shows how far the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17693,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/12\/22\/significant-divergence\/","url_meta":{"origin":1024,"position":4},"title":"Significant divergence","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 22, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Market commentators are sifting through the data, looking for reasons to explain the sharp sell-off in stocks over the last two months. But everything they examine is likely to be shaded by their bear-tinted spectacles after the S&P 500 broke primary support at 2550. The Nasdaq 100 also broke primary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13762,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/12\/us-recovery-on-track\/","url_meta":{"origin":1024,"position":5},"title":"US Recovery on Track","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 12, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The Leading Index calculated by the Philadelphia Fed has, in the past proved a reliable indicator of economic conditions. The latest value of 1.74% (December 2014) reflects a healthy recovery. Light vehicle sales also indicate consumer confidence. Annual sales to December 2014 of 16.8 million units are in the same\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Philadelphia Fed Leading Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-12-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-12-leading.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-12-leading.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1024"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1024\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}