{"id":10197,"date":"2014-07-01T00:24:41","date_gmt":"2014-07-01T04:24:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10197"},"modified":"2014-07-01T00:24:41","modified_gmt":"2014-07-01T04:24:41","slug":"will-inflation-remain-low-frbsf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/01\/will-inflation-remain-low-frbsf\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Inflation Remain Low? | FRBSF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The well-known Phillips curve suggests that future inflation depends on current and past inflation and a measure of economic slack or resource utilization. Using the unemployment gap to measure slack, a simple Phillips curve currently predicts that inflation will remain quite low through 2015. Two variations of the model, which impose a higher anchor for inflation expectations or focus only on a short-term unemployment gap, still predict that inflation will remain low, albeit higher than implied by the basic model.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/economic-research\/publications\/economic-letter\/2014\/june\/will-inflation-stay-low-phillips-curve\/?utm_source=mailchimp&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_campaign=economic-letter-2014-06-30'>Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco | Will Inflation Remain Low?<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: The well-known Phillips curve suggests that future inflation depends on current and past inflation and a measure of economic slack or resource utilization. Using the unemployment gap to measure slack, a simple Phillips curve currently predicts that inflation will remain quite &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/01\/will-inflation-remain-low-frbsf\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Will Inflation Remain Low? | FRBSF&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,34],"tags":[566,1828,2662,3533],"class_list":["post-10197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-capacity-utilization","tag-inflation","tag-phillips-curve","tag-unemployment-gap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will Inflation Remain Low? | FRBSF - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Inflation Remain Low? | FRBSF - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: The well-known Phillips curve suggests that future inflation depends on current and past inflation and a measure of economic slack or resource utilization. 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But that excludes food and energy, two components that cause consumers the most pain. The broader PCE index remains high, at 6.3%, displaying a similar pattern to the consumer price index (CPI), though not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PCE Inflation","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-30-pce-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-30-pce-core.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-30-pce-core.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37249,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/12\/fed-higher-for-longer\/","url_meta":{"origin":10197,"position":1},"title":"What Fed &#8220;higher for longer&#8221; means","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 12, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley says the Fed will need to hold rates \"higher for longer\" in order to curb inflation. He expects rates will be \u201c4% or higher\u201d in the first half of 2023. (Bloomberg) A 75 basis-point hike is on the cards for the next FOMC\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Nymex Light Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-12-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":17135,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2018\/10\/05\/extraordinary-times-of-low-unemployment-and-low-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10197,"position":2},"title":"Extraordinary times of low unemployment and low inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Unemployment fell to 3.7% for September, well below the long-term natural rate of unemployment. This normally signifies a tightening labor market, a precursor to higher inflation. But growth in average hourly earnings dipped slightly, to 2.75% for the past 12 months. Underlying inflationary forces remain subdued. As Fed Chairman Powell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15659,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/31\/why-is-it-so-hard-to-forecast-interest-rates-san-francisco-fed\/","url_meta":{"origin":10197,"position":3},"title":"Why is it so hard to forecast interest rates? | San Francisco Fed","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 31, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting paper by Michael Bauer at the San Francisco Fed: ....The difficulty of predicting changes in interest rates mainly arises from two features that characterize their evolution over time. First, like other financial variables, interest rates vary widely from day to day, which makes them difficult to link to economic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36415,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/15\/why-we-hold-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":10197,"position":4},"title":"Why we hold Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 15, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Here is a quick summary of our outlook on Gold, inflation and the Dollar, prepared in answer to a question from a client. Interest Rates The yield curve has flattened, indicating bond market expectations that the Fed will be forced to stop hiking rates soon. We are not so sure.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Yield Curve","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-12-yieldcurve.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-12-yieldcurve.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-12-yieldcurve.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50690,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/03\/rising-crude-and-gold-warn-of-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":10197,"position":5},"title":"Rising Crude and Gold warn of inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Brent crude continued its advance, closing at almost $89 per barrel on Tuesday. Our target is $94 per barrel would increase inflationary pressure in the months ahead and possibly delay Fed rate cuts. Rising crude oil prices have forced cancellation of plans to restock the strategic petroleum reserve (Bloomberg). US\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-02-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-02-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10197","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10197"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10197\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10197"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10197"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10197"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}