{"id":10038,"date":"2014-06-18T20:17:47","date_gmt":"2014-06-19T00:17:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=10038"},"modified":"2014-06-18T20:17:47","modified_gmt":"2014-06-19T00:17:47","slug":"robert-shiller-cape-should-not-be-used-as-a-market-timing-mechanism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/06\/18\/robert-shiller-cape-should-not-be-used-as-a-market-timing-mechanism\/","title":{"rendered":"Robert Shiller: CAPE should not be used for market timing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>From an interview with Robert Shiller in January 2013:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Blodget: &#8230;.one frustration a lot of people have with the cyclically adjusted P\/E and others is that it\u2019s not particularly helpful for the timing mechanism, do you think it\u2019s good to use as a sort of projected 10-year return, where when P\/Es are high the return tends to be low, and vice versa?<\/p>\n<p>Shiller: John Campbell, who\u2019s now a professor at Harvard, and I presented our findings first to the Federal Reserve Board in 1996, and we had a regression, showing how the P\/E ratio predicts returns. And we had scatter diagrams, showing 10-year subsequent returns against the CAPE, what we call the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio. And that had a pretty good fit. So I think the bottom line that we were giving \u2013 and maybe we didn\u2019t stress or emphasize it enough \u2013 was that it\u2019s continual. It\u2019s not a timing mechanism, it doesn\u2019t tell you &#8212; and I had the same mistake in my mind, to some extent &#8212; Wait until it goes all the way down to a P\/E of 7, or something.<\/p>\n<p>Blodget: Right, perfectly safe, so then you can buy.<\/p>\n<p>Shiller: But actually, the lesson there is that if you combine that with a good market diversification algorithm, the important thing is that you never get completely in or completely out of stocks. The lower CAPE is, as it gradually gets lower, you gradually move more and more in. So taking that lesson now, CAPE is high, but it\u2019s not super high. I think it looks like stocks should be a substantial part of a portfolio.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Read more at <a href='http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/robert-shiller-on-stocks-2013-1?IR=T'>Robert Shiller On Stocks &#8211; Business Insider<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From an interview with Robert Shiller in January 2013: Blodget: &#8230;.one frustration a lot of people have with the cyclically adjusted P\/E and others is that it\u2019s not particularly helpful for the timing mechanism, do you think it\u2019s good to use as a sort of projected 10-year return, where when P\/Es are high the return &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/06\/18\/robert-shiller-cape-should-not-be-used-as-a-market-timing-mechanism\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Robert Shiller: CAPE should not be used for market timing&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[237,567,2243,2979],"class_list":["post-10038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-asset-allocation","tag-cape","tag-market-timing","tag-robert-shiller"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Robert Shiller: CAPE should not be used for market timing - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Robert Shiller: CAPE should not be used for market timing - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"From an interview with Robert Shiller in January 2013: Blodget: &#8230;.one frustration a lot of people have with the cyclically adjusted P\/E and others is that it\u2019s not particularly helpful for the timing mechanism, do you think it\u2019s good to use as a sort of projected 10-year return, where when P\/Es are high the return &hellip; 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Nobel laureate Robert Shiller this week commented that he was no longer buying stocks as he\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13749,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/18\/robert-shillers-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":10038,"position":2},"title":"Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 18, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have long held the view that using Robert Shiller's CAPE to determine whether stocks are under- or over-priced is misleading. Average levels for CAPE have shifted over time, and one cannot rely solely on historic highs and lows as a measure of whether the market is over-bought or over-sold.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Insights&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16039,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/09\/cape-v-pemax-how-hot-are-market-valuations\/","url_meta":{"origin":10038,"position":3},"title":"CAPE v PEMAX: How hot are market valuations?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio is currently at 32.17, the second-highest peak in recorded history. According to multpl.com, prior to the Black Tuesday crash of 1929 CAPE had a reading of 30. The only peak with a higher reading is the Dotcom bubble at 44. Click here to view at multpl.com.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Quotes&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Quotes","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/quotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17741,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/01\/15\/pemax-why-you-should-be-cautious-using-robert-shillers-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":10038,"position":4},"title":"PEmax and why you should be wary of Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 15, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's groundbreaking works, Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits, led to a Nobel prize in 2013 but we need to be careful of placing too much reliance on his CAPE as an indicator of stock market value. What is CAPE? CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, normally applied to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62182,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/26\/us-market-leading-indicators-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":10038,"position":5},"title":"US Market Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, and the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.55, with expanding\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}