{"id":65070,"date":"2026-06-28T05:20:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T05:20:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?page_id=65070"},"modified":"2026-06-28T05:40:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T05:40:42","slug":"us-leading-indicator-past-performance","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/us-leading-indicator-past-performance\/","title":{"rendered":"US Leading Indicator Past Performance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Our test of the new Leading Indicator format shows improved responsiveness. An investment of $100,000 in the S&P 500 Total Return Index in January 1990 would have grown to $4.1 million by April 2026, but a strategy that switches proportionately to AA-grade corporate bonds as the Bull-Bear risk-off signal increases would have reached $5.7 million.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

A strategy that switches proportionately to Gold instead of AA corporate bonds, however, would have accumulated to $15.3 million over the same period.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

How the Portfolio is Adjusted<\/h2>\n

The portfolio is invested 100% in the S&P 500 index if risk-off is at zero. <\/p>\n

As the risk-off measure rises, the weighting to equities is proportionately reduced. When the risk-off signal reaches 40%, for example, exposure to the S&P 500 is reduced to 60% with a 40% weighting in Gold. <\/p>\n

If the risk-off signal reaches 100%, the weighting for the S&P 500 is reduced to zero and the portfolio is fully invested in Gold.<\/p>\n

Related Links<\/h4>\n