{"id":64316,"date":"2026-05-05T12:11:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:11:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?page_id=64316"},"modified":"2026-06-28T05:15:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T05:15:01","slug":"asx-bull-bear-market-leading-indicator","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/asx-bull-bear-market-leading-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Bull-Bear Market Leading Indicator"},"content":{"rendered":"

Data is updated weekly as part of the Market Analysis service<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Bull\/Bear<\/p>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index is at 54, down from 64 two weeks ago, signaling a bear market.<\/p>\n

Two of four Australian indicators signal risk-off after the 3-month moving average of NAB Forward Orders fell to -2 for May 2026. One of two Chinese indicators signals risk-off, and the ASX 200 Financials Index is testing primary support, placing us on bear watch.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Australian leading indicators carry a 40% weighting in the ASX Leading Index, China 20%, and the US Leading Index carries the remaining 40%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Forward Orders<\/h3>\n

NAB Forward Orders recovered to zero in May 2026, from -5 in April, but the 3-month moving average fell to -2. The 3-month MA below zero signals risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"NAB<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Housing Sector<\/h3>\n

Activity in the Australian housing sector is improving, with the 3-month moving average of private housing approvals rising to 17.4K in April. A cross of 3-month MA values (navy) to below the 20-year MA (red) would signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Financial Sector<\/h3>\n

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average and continues to test primary support at 9000. A breach of 9000, confirmed by a follow-through below 8900, would signal a primary downtrend and indicate risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

ASX 200 Real Returns<\/h3>\n

The ASX 200 is above its 50-week moving average, but the long-term downtrend relative to Gold continues, signaling risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on Australian Stocks.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

China<\/h3>\n

The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China lifted to 98.91 in May, from 98.8 in April. Values below 99.0, or a fall of more than 3 points from the preceding peak, signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

China is Australia’s largest export market, and the performance of the Chinese economy directly impacts the ASX.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Chinese Manufacturing<\/h3>\n

The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI eased to 50 in May, indicating continued expansion. Values below 49.0 signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The Bull-Bear indicator signals the start of a bear market, while the ASX 200 Financials Index remains close to its risk-off threshold, keeping us on bear watch.
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Related Links<\/h4>\n