{"id":16575,"date":"2018-07-10T02:22:45","date_gmt":"2018-07-10T02:22:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?page_id=16575"},"modified":"2025-10-11T23:40:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T23:40:35","slug":"an-efficient-mechanism","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","title":{"rendered":""},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>Mega Trends<\/h1>\n<p>The Patient Investor provides in-depth analysis of mega trends in the global economy and identifies key changes in financial markets. We help investors to enhance their returns by swimming with the tide rather than against it.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/why-evaluate-trends\/\">Mega trends<\/a> are secular or generational trends spanning several decades that significantly impact the global economy. We identify key industries that stand to benefit from these trends and those likely to be disadvantaged.<\/p>\n<h2>Free Weekly Updates<\/h2>\n<p>Take advantage of our <a href=\"#free\">free weekly updates<\/a> covering:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Leading market indicators for US and Australian financial markets, which provide an objective measure of position in bull\/bear markets;<\/li>\n<li>Composite valuation indicators that measure stock market drawdown risk; and<\/li>\n<li>Occasional bonus updates on mega trends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/p>\n<p><a style=\"color: #fff; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?\/register\/uKvnPUy\"><button class=\"btn\" style=\"background:rgb(33, 84, 104); border-radius:0.5em\">Sign up for Free<\/button><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n<h2>Premium Updates (Market Analysis)<\/h2>\n<p>Upgrade to the Patient Investor premium service for full coverage of mega trends, key sectors, inflation, interest rates, commodities, energy, and precious metals\u2014to help identify investment opportunities.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>To learn more, sign up for <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-2\/\">$1 for the first month<\/a>. Cancel at any time. This offer is for new subscribers only.<br \/>\n<a style=\"color: #fff; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis-2\/\">$1 for the First Month<\/a><br \/>\nIf you are already registered, please <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/login\/\">Login Here<\/a> or use the link on the top menu.<\/p>\n<p>\n<h2>PVT Capital<\/h2>\n<p>PVT Capital, an associate company, offers stock selection, position sizing, and investment recommendations for wholesale clients. If you qualify as a <a href=\"#hnw\">wholesale client<\/a>, kindly <a href=\"https:\/\/pvtcapital.com.au\/index.php\/contact-us\/\">contact PVT Capital<\/a> to learn more.<\/p>\n<h4 id=\"hnw\">Wholesale Clients<\/h4>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/asic.gov.au\/regulatory-resources\/financial-services\/financial-product-disclosure\/certificates-issued-by-a-qualified-accountant\/\">certificate from a qualified accountant<\/a> is required to confirm that you qualify as a wholesale client under Section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. Please consult your accountant if unsure as to whether you qualify.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"free\">Leading Indicators &amp; Market Risk<\/h2>\n<p>We offer objective measures for position in the bull\/bear market cycle and stock market drawdown risk.<br \/>\nExamples below are from May 3, 2025.<\/p>\n<h3>USA<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fleximage\">\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-stock-value-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Pricing Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n<h4>Bull\/Bear Market<\/h4>\n<p>The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is a composite of five separate measures below, with two of the five leading indicators now signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n<div class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C371&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"371\" \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"margin: 1em auto;\">\n<h4>Stock Pricing<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<p>The US stock pricing indicator reflects the average z-score of five key valuation metrics. First is Warren Buffett&#8217;s favorite, the ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP,\u00a0while the remaining four all relate to the S&amp;P 500 large-cap index. The Price-to-Sales ratio compares the index to the most recent four quarters of earnings. Robert Shiller&#8217;s CAPE compares to a ten-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. The PE of highest trailing earnings compares the index to the highest four consecutive quarters of trailing earnings, removing the distortion from sharp earnings declines during a recession. Last, Forward PE compares the index to projected earnings for the next four quarters.<\/p>\n<div class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-stock-value.png?resize=525%2C294&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Value Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"294\" \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"margin: 1em auto;\">We use z-scores to measure each indicator&#8217;s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n<h3>Australia<\/h3>\n<div class=\"fleximage\">\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-stock-value-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Pricing Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin: 1em auto;\">\n<h4>Bull\/Bear Market<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator comprises four leading indicators for Australia, two for China (our largest trading partner), plus a 40% weighting of the Bull-Bear signal for US markets.<\/p>\n<div class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C280&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"280\" \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"margin: 1em auto;\">\n<h4>Stock Pricing<\/h4>\n<\/div>\n<p>The ASX stock pricing indicator reflects the average z-score of six key valuation metrics. First, Warren Buffett&#8217;s favorite valuation indicator compares ASX stock market capitalization to GDP. The next two calculate the Forward PE and Price-to-Sales ratio using a 20% trimmed mean of ASX 20 stocks. The last three use the All Ordinaries index, reflecting roughly the top 500 stocks. The PE of trailing and highest trailing earnings will sometimes be equal, but the highest trailing earnings removes the distortion from sharp earnings falls during recessions. Z-score for the All Ordinaries Dividend Yield is inverted because higher yields indicate lower valuations.<\/p>\n<div class=\"aligncenter\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-asx-stock-value.png?resize=525%2C269&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Value Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"269\" \/><\/div>\n<br \/>\nSign up for free weekly updates:<\/p>\n<p><a style=\"color: #fff; text-decoration: none;\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?\/register\/uKvnPUy\"><button class=\"btn\" style=\"background:rgb(33, 84, 104); border-radius:0.5em\">Sign up for Free<\/button><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n<h3>Learn More<\/h3>\n<p>See <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/managing-risk\/\">Managing Risk<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/bull-bear-market-indicator-september-26-2024\/\">Bull-Bear Indicator<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/stock-market-valuation-september-25-2024\/\">Stock Pricing<\/a> to learn more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mega Trends The Patient Investor provides in-depth analysis of mega trends in the global economy and identifies key changes in financial markets. We help investors to enhance their returns by swimming with the tide rather than against it. Mega trends are secular or generational trends spanning several decades that significantly impact the global economy. We &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-16575","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Market Analysis | The Patient Investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Market Analysis newsletter provides insight into financial markets: stocks, precious metals, crude oil, commodities, interest rates, the economy, key sectors and industries.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Analysis | The Patient Investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Market Analysis newsletter provides insight into financial markets: stocks, precious metals, crude oil, commodities, interest rates, the economy, key sectors and industries.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-11T23:40:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\",\"name\":\"Market Analysis | The Patient Investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-07-10T02:22:45+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-11T23:40:35+00:00\",\"description\":\"The Market Analysis newsletter provides insight into financial markets: stocks, precious metals, crude oil, commodities, interest rates, the economy, key sectors and industries.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-02-us-bull-bear-gauge.png\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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The aim is to be brief and to the point, rather than write lengthy epistles. Recent titles Subscribers have access to all Market Analysis updates\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24697,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-is\/","url_meta":{"origin":16575,"position":1},"title":"Special Offer &#8212; IS","author":"Andy","date":"March 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Market Analysis Colin Twiggs' weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2014 including mega-trends, key sectors, inflation, interest rates, commodities, energy and precious metals. The aim is to be brief and to the point, rather than write lengthy epistles. Recent titles Subscribers have access to all titles and are\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24888,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-lb\/","url_meta":{"origin":16575,"position":2},"title":"Special Offer &#8212; LB","author":"Andy","date":"March 30, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Market Analysis Colin Twiggs' weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2014 including mega-trends, key sectors, inflation, interest rates, commodities, energy and precious metals. The aim is to be brief and to the point, rather than write lengthy epistles. Recent titles Subscribers have access to all titles and are\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16416,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/","url_meta":{"origin":16575,"position":3},"title":"Subscriptions","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Colin Twiggs, The Patient Investor and his team provide weekly updates on financial markets and the economy. Coverage includes key global macro-trends and related sectors\/industries; credit markets, interest rates and inflation; commodities and critical materials; gold and silver; and energy -- from oil and gas to renewables and nuclear energy.\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":34579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/subscribe\/special-offer-market-analysis\/","url_meta":{"origin":16575,"position":4},"title":"Special Offer &#8212; Market Analysis ($1 for the first month; Recent Titles)","author":"Andy","date":"June 21, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Market Analysis Colin Twiggs' weekly coverage of financial markets and the economy \u2014 including mega-trends, key sectors, inflation, interest rates, commodities, energy and precious metals. The aim is to be brief and to the point, rather than write lengthy epistles. Recent titles Subscribers have access to all Market Analysis updates\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14708,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/why-evaluate-trends\/","url_meta":{"origin":16575,"position":5},"title":"Mega Trends","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Mega trends are secular or generational trends that span several decades, sometimes longer. Use the top menu for links to the mega trends identified below: Global population Ageing populations in developed countries Growing populations in underdeveloped countries Migration Environmental damage CO2 and methane emissions Plastic pollution Over-fishing Decarbonization Renewables Electric\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/16575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16575"}],"version-history":[{"count":173,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/16575\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62675,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/16575\/revisions\/62675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}