Tag: NASDAQ 100

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S&P 500 recovery

The S&P 500 recovered above 1850, suggesting an advance to 1950. Breakout above 1900 would confirm. Recovery of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow above its descending trendline indicates that selling pressure is easing. Reversal below 1840 is less likely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1750.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) retreated to 14, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 found strong support at 3400 on the weekly chart. Recovery above 3600 would suggest an advance. Breakout above 3700 would confirm, offering a target of 4000*. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero would be a bullish sign. Respect of resistance at 3600 would be bearish.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

The primary trend continues upward and none of our market filters indicate elevated risk.

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Market sell-off despite improved job numbers

The market experienced a strong sell-off Friday, despite signs that the Winter slowdown in job creation is over. Nelson Schwartz at the New York Times writes:

The latest numbers are likely to be revised significantly as more information flows into the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even so, they suggest that the economy is not achieving what economists call escape velocity, something that policy makers have long sought. Neither is it falling into the rut some pessimists feared was developing early in 2014.

The S&P 500 retreated below its latest support level of 1880. Follow-through below 1840 would signal a correction, while respect of support would suggest an advance to 1950*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of medium-term selling pressure and reversal below zero would strengthen the signal. An early correction (without a decent advance above the January high) would be a bearish sign, indicating that long-term sellers outnumber buyers.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 14 continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 indicates long-term selling pressure, with a sharp fall following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of the (secondary) rising trendline and support at 3550 warns of a correction to primary support at 3400. Recovery above 3650 is unlikely, but would suggest a bear trap.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950

The primary trend remains upward and none of our market filters indicate signs of stress.

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S&P 500 breakout

Narrow consolidation on the S&P 500 weekly chart and completion of a shallow correction on the Nasdaq 100 would suggest a strong up-trend.

The S&P 500 broke through resistance at 1875/1880, signaling an advance to 1950*. Layering above 1850 throughout March reflected strong selling, with bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warning of medium-term selling pressure, but upward breakout indicates that buyers have prevailed. Reversal below 1875 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap — as would a peak below the descending trendline on Twiggs Money Flow.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at 13 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 found support at 3550 and the (secondary) ascending trendline. Recovery above 3700 would confirm another advance, but continued bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would warn of persistent selling pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3750 + ( 3750 – 3550 ) = 3950

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S&P 500 not yet out of the woods

The S&P 500 rallied off support at 1840/1850 but a weak close warns of further resistance. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow (not shown) indicates medium-term selling pressure. I have highlighted daily Volume that is more than 1 standard deviation outside the 50-day moving average on the graph below. The latest red bar showed strong resistance at triple-witching hour, but the last two rallies on low volume also suggest a lack of commitment from buyers. Reversal below 1840 would signal a correction. Breakout above 1880 is less likely, but would signal an advance to 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15, however, continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 below 3600 indicates a correction. Penetration of the (secondary) rising trendline would strengthen the signal. Sharply falling 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, following bearish divergence, warns of strong selling pressure and a test of primary support at 3400/3420. Recovery above 3650 is unlikely, but would indicate another advance.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

Bellwether Transport stock Fedex is headed for another test of primary support at $128/$130. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure and a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support would confirm, suggesting a broad economic slow-down.

Fedex

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S&P up-trend still healthy

The S&P 500 retreated below support at 1850, warning of a correction, but the primary up-trend remains strong. Trend strength is depicted by this weekly chart of Ichimoku Cloud, with a buy signal at the start of 2013 and price holding high above a green cloud indicating trend strength.

S&P 500

Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure, consistent with a secondary correction, but respect of the rising trendline would signal a healthy up-trend. And recovery above 1850 would offer a target of 1950*.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is rising and a sustained shift above 20 would signal an increase from low to moderate risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 also shows bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, warning of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would test primary support at 3400, while respect would confirm a healthy up-trend. Recovery above 3650 would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

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S&P 500 advance

The S&P 500 found support at 1850, signaling an advance to 1950*. Repeated troughs high above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong long-term buying pressure

S&P 500

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to reflect low market risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 respected support at 3600, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

Bellwether Transport stock Fedex found support at $130 on the monthly chart. Breakout above $145 would offer a target of $170*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. A bullish sign for the broader economy. Reversal below $130 is unlikely, but would warn of a decline to $120.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 145 + ( 145 – 120 ) = 170

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S&P 500 persistent selling

The S&P 500 broke out above 1850, but the tall shadow/wick reflects persistent selling. The E-mini (Mar 2014) is currently sitting just above 1840. Index breakout below this level would warn of another correction. Follow-through above 1860 is now unlikely, but would signal an advance to 1950*. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is likely to rise because of developments in the Ukraine, but below 20 reflects a bull market.

VIX Index

Nasdaq 100 reversal below 3600 would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below its recent low would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 3700 seems less likely, but would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

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S&P 500 meets resistance

The S&P 500 encountered stout resistance at 1850, highlighted by today’s false breakout. Follow-through above 1860 would indicate that buyers out-number sellers, signaling an advance to 1950*. Reversal below 1825 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction. The long-term trend remains bullish, with repeated 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above the zero line.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 reflects low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is weaker. Large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Reversal below 16000 would warn of a correction to test primary support at 15400.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500

The Nasdaq 100, on the other hand, remains bullish. Reversal below 3600, especially after last week’s doji star candlestick formation, would warn of a test of primary support at 3400. Decline of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below its recent low would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 3700, however, would offer a target of 3800*.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

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Nasdaq big picture

You don’t often see buying pressure as good as the Nasdaq 100, with 21-day Money Flow holding above zero for more than a year (posted in response to a reader comment that the Nasdaq breakout looked phony).

Nasdaq 100

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Nasdaq leads market higher

The Nasdaq 100 broke through its January high, signaling an advance to 3800*. Retreat below the (secondary) rising trendline is unlikely, but would test primary support at 3400. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough high above zero indicates strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3600 + ( 3600 – 3400 ) = 3800

The S&P 500 is testing similar resistance at 1850. Breakout would signal an advance to 1950*. Respect is unlikely, given the Nasdaq breakout, but would warn of another correction. Completion of a 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would be a bullish sign.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 20 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

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