Tag: Australian Dollar

Posted on

ASX and Aussie Dollar rally

The Australian Dollar found support at $0.8650/$0.8700. Respect of resistance at $0.8900, however, would suggest another decline. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of primary support at $0.8650 would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 rallied in line with short-term buoyancy on the Aussie Dollar. Bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow and recovery above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. But the trend remains down and failure of (short-term) support at 5120 would warn of a test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the declining trendline is unlikely, but would suggest that the correction is ending. Follow-through above 5350 would confirm.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5650 – 5350 ) = 5050

The ASX 200 VIX continues to indicate low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Posted on

Aussie Dollar and ASX find short-term support

The Australian Dollar found support at $0.8650/$0.8700 and is likely to retrace to test the new resistance level at $0.8850/$0.8900. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum (below zero) signals a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is likely and breach of primary support ($0.8650) would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is also retracing and likely to test resistance around 5350. Peaks below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warn of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance is likely and would warn of a test of 4900/5000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but remains at levels typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Posted on

Australian investors

Australian stocks have taken a bit of a beating over the last few weeks, including a few of the momentum stocks in our portfolio. Risk of a bear market remains low, but a falling Aussie Dollar has prompted international investors to scale back exposure to Australian equities.

AUDUSD

This tends to become self-reinforcing as falling stock prices then prompt further sell-offs. And repatriation causes further weakness in the Aussie Dollar. The down-trend is likely to continue if support at $0.8650/$0.8700 is breached.

Investors who split their portfolio between the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have been cushioned from the fall, with their US portfolio showing strong appreciation in Australian Dollar terms.

Posted on

Australian investors

Australian stocks have taken a bit of a beating over the last few weeks, including a few of the momentum stocks in our portfolio. Risk of a bear market remains low, but a falling Aussie Dollar has prompted international investors to scale back exposure to Australian equities.

AUDUSD

This tends to become self-reinforcing as falling stock prices then prompt further sell-offs. And repatriation causes further weakness in the Aussie Dollar. The down-trend is likely to continue if support at $0.8650/$0.8700 is breached.

Investors who split their portfolio between the S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have been cushioned from the fall, with their US portfolio showing strong appreciation in Australian Dollar terms.

Posted on

Aussie under the pump but ASX finds support

The Aussie Dollar is now testing support at $0.89 after negative projections from Nouriel Roubini’s team. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend, but expect further support at $0.8650/$0.8700. Breach would confirm a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is testing support at 5300/5350. Long tails on the last two candles suggest short/medium-term buying pressure, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Recovery above 5450 would suggest another rally, while breach of 5300 would warn of a fall to 4900/5000*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5350 – ( 5700 – 5350 ) = 5000

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but remains at levels typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Posted on

Aussie dollar leads ASX lower

The Australian Dollar found short-term support at $0.90 after last week’s fall. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another decline, but expect support at $0.89/$0.90 and at $0.8650/$0.8700. Breach of the latter would confirm a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.87 – ( 0.94 – 0.87 ) = 0.80

The ASX 200 is testing a wide band of support between 5420 and 5460. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would suggest a correction to test the primary trendline around 5000. Support levels are indistinct because of frequent back-filling, however, and could establish anywhere between 5300 and 5450.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX is rising, but levels below 20 are typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

Posted on

Two questions for Australian investors

Two questions for Australian investors:

  1. Does the graph below show an up-trend?
  2. Would it be a good time to buy this stock?

ASX 200

If your answer to both questions is NO, then why would you consider selling when we invert the price scale? The chart is the ASX 200 index. Use View >> Invert Price Scale, or Ctrl+I shortcut key to invert the chart.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5350 ) = 5750

The chart below is not inverted. The ASX 200 VIX tends to behave inversely to the index. A value of 12.2 suggests low risk typical of a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar is retracing to test support at $0.92. Respect would indicate that buyers continue to dominate. Recovery above resistance at $0.94 would suggest an advance to $0.97. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm. Breach of $0.92 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $0.8650/$0.87.

AUDUSD

Posted on

ASX 200: Three targets converge

The ASX 200 broke resistance at 5590/5600 and is set for a further advance. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would confirm long-term buying pressure. Convergence of targets, calculated for different time frames, at 5750/5850 also strengthens the signal:

  • 5250 + (5250 – 4650) = 5850
  • 5450 + (5450 – 5050) = 5850
  • 5550 + (5550 – 5350) = 5750

Reversal below 5540 is most unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

ASX 200 VIX near 10 continues to indicate a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $0.94, suggesting an upward breakout. Only concerted action by the RBA would be likely to counter this. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. Reversal below $0.92 is most unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at $0.8650/$0.87.

AUDUSD

Posted on

BHP fuels ASX 200 surge

A surge in production from miner BHP Billiton — shipping 223 million tonnes in FY 2014 against earlier projections of 207 million tonnes — helped the ASX 200 break through resistance at 5550/5560 today. Expect retracement to test support at 5550 and the rising trendline. Respect would confirm a medium-term target of 5700*.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5550 + ( 5550 – 5400 ) = 5700

ASX 200 VIX below 10 continues to indicate a bull market.

ASX 200

The Australian Dollar responded to the influx of international buyers, breaking resistance at $0.94. Follow-through above $0.945 would confirm a rally to $0.97. RBA intervention has so far proved ineffectual, but reversal below $0.94 would warn of a test of $0.92.

AUDUSD

Posted on

Aussie Dollar: Should RBA ‘lean against the wind’?

The Euro rallied to resistance at $1.37 after testing primary support at $1.35 and the rising long-term trendline. Recovery above $1.37 would suggest a rally to $1.39/$1.40, but descending 13-week Twiggs Momentum remains below zero, warning of weakness. Breach of $1.35 is equally likely and would signal a decline to $1.31*.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 – ( 1.39 – 1.35 ) = 1.31

The Aussie Dollar is again testing resistance at $0.94. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum holding above zero suggests continuation of the up-trend. Follow-through above $0.95 would suggest a target of $0.97. Reversal below $0.92 is unlikely at present, but would warn of a decline to the band of support between $0.87 and $0.89.

Aussie Dollar

A monthly chart of the Euro against the Swiss Franc shows how the Swiss central bank intervened in 2011 to prevent further appreciation against the Euro and protect local industry. The Australian central bank faced a similar challenge in 2011, but from a different cause, with the Aussie Dollar rising strongly against the greenback on the back of a mining investment boom. The RBA sat on its hands and failed to “lean against the wind” as called for by Prof Warwick McKibbin. Local industry has suffered irreparable damage in the ensuing period.

Aussie Dollar

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance By WPSmart