ASX 200: Miners rally but banks a worry

The ASX 200 found support at 6120/6150, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Follow-through above 6250 would suggest another advance. Breach is now unlikely but would warn of a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

A rally on resources stocks helped support the overall index. Expect the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index to test 4000.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Miners were helped by a weakening Aussie Dollar. Breach of support at 71 US cents offers a target of 69 cents. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.

AUDUSD

Banks, on the other hand, are weakening. The ASX 300 Banks index  broke support at 7700, with a declining Trend Index warning of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Falling broad money and credit growth warn of a contraction — unless an unlikely Chinese-led mining boom can keep the wolf from the door.

Broad Money and Credit Growth

House prices are falling.

House Prices

Returns on bank equity are declining due to increased capital requirements, lower credit growth and narrow margins.

Banks Return on Equity

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200: Banks lack support but miners receive a boost

The ASX 200 correction continues to test medium-term support at 6150. Small candles on the weekly chart indicate a lack of enthusiasm from buyers and support is unlikely to hold. Breach would signal a test of the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining, however, received a boost from stronger commodity prices and is testing resistance at 3750. A Trend Index peak near zero is less likely but would warn of selling pressure and a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200: Correction to test 6000

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is also headed for a test of primary support, at 3400. A Trend Index peak at/below zero would warn of rising selling pressure and a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Commodities are already in a primary down-trend but Australian stocks are partially cushioned by a weakening Aussie Dollar.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

The ASX 200 found medium-term support at 6150 but this unlikely to hold. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 hesitant

The ASX 300 Banks index found support at 7700 and retraced to test its new resistance level at 8000. Respect is likely and would confirm another test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index made a weak retracement to test 3750, suggesting strong selling pressure. Breach of short-term support at 3600 is likely and would test primary support at 3400.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 rallied above the 6300 watershed but selling pressure is evident in the tall shadow. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of selling pressure. Breach of 6200 is likely and would warn of a correction, testing 6000.

ASX 200

I am wary of banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 hurt by banks, miners and politics

After a false break above 8100 the ASX 300 Banks index completed a bull trap with reversal below 7900. Expect a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Resources stocks continued their correction, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index finding short-term support at 3600. Follow-through is likely and would test primary support at 3400, with fears of a US-China trade war undermining commodity prices.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 200 retreated below its new support level at 6300. Political upheaval may have contributed but penetration of the rising trendline would warn of a correction (already signaled by bearish Divergence on the Trend Index).

ASX 200

I remain wary of banks because of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 retreats

The two largest sectors in the ASX 200 are both retreating from recent highs.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing support at 3750. Breach of support and the rising trendline would warn of a test of primary support at 3400.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks index reversed below its short-term support level at 8000, warning of a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The banking sector faces the prospect of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain cautious despite penetration of the descending trendline which suggests that a bottom is forming.

The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at 6300. Breach of short-term support at 6200 would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

The primary trend is upward but economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Trade tariff impact on China & Australia

The yuan is falling as threat of a tariff war rises.

Yuan

The Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2016 low at 2700. Breach would warn of a decline to the 2014 low at 2000.

Shanghai Composite Index

Commodity prices are plunging in anticipation of falling demand from China.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Chinese monthly iron ore imports are down at 83.24 mt, compared to earlier peaks of 100 mt earlier in 2017. Iron ore spot price is testing primary support $63/tonne. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a decline to $58/tonne.

Iron Ore

A falling Aussie Dollar may cushion local resources stocks from some of the impact.

Australian Dollar

But ASX 300 Metals & Mining index continues to test medium-term support at 3800. Breach of support is likely and would warn of a correction to test the rising trendline.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Resources stocks remain in a primary up-trend but I am bearish on the medium-term outlook.

Banks lift ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test resistance at 8000. Respect remains likely and would indicate another test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Rising banks lifted the ASX 200. Follow-through above 6250 signals another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200

This leaves me in a difficult position. Technical signals suggest a primary advance, while economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market.

Banks

The banking sector is being squeezed by higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk.

Gerard Minack from Minack Advisers warns that the current credit contraction could cause a significant fall in housing prices:

Most houses are bought on credit, so the demand for housing is a function of the supply of credit. Consequently, housing loan approvals have historically led house prices. New loan approvals have fallen by around 20% year-over-year several times over the past 25 years. If the current credit contraction is more severe – say, a decline of up to 30% – then nationwide house prices could fall high single digits over the coming year.

….All this suggests that a high single-digit decline in house prices would put a material dent in domestic demand. If prices were to fall by, say, 15%, and if consumer income growth was as tepid as it now is, there would be a good chance of recession.

Resources

A falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy.

CNY/USD

Commodity prices have responded, falling to test primary support levels.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Including iron ore.

Iron Ore

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing medium-term support at 3800. Breach is likely and would warn of a correction to test the rising trendline.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

My approach is to sit with one foot either side of the fence. Focus on growth sectors. Stay away from Banks. Stay away from Resources but stay in Gold. And keep a healthy percentage of the Australian portfolio in Cash and reasonably secure interest-bearing investments. Definitely not hybrids.

ASX 200: China threat

A rapidly falling Chinese Yuan highlights the threat of trade tariffs to the Chinese economy.

CNY/USD

Expect another sell-off of foreign reserves by China, as in 2015 to 2016, in attempt to stabilize the Yuan and head-off a major capital exodus. The sell-off would weaken the Dollar and Chinese exports.

China Foreign Reserves

Significant monetary easing by the PBOC is also likely, to stimulate domestic demand. Driving the Debt-to-GDP ratio into the stratosphere.

The Aussie Dollar would act as a shock-absorber, following the path of the Yuan.

AUD/USD

Cushioning the blow to Australian exporters.

So far, Resources stocks are unfazed. The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is consolidating below 4000.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks index ran into stiff resistance at 8000. Expect another test of primary support at 7300 but this is not related to trade tariffs.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 200 appears unperturbed by the international turmoil, retracing calmly to test its new support level at 6150. Respect would signal another primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200

ASX 200 strengthens despite banks and iron prices

Iron ore prices are weakening, with spot testing support at $62/tonne. A Trend Index peak below zero would complete a bearish outlook, warning of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at $58 would confirm a primary down-trend.

Iron Ore

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing resistance at 4000, remaining in a strong up-trend despite weaker ore prices.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Australian banks face a tough time over the next year or two but the ASX 200 index continues to strengthen despite weakness in its largest sector. A Twiggs Money Flow (13-week) trough at the zero line signals interest from buyers and breakout above 6150 would signal a primary advance, with a target of the October 2007 high at 6750.

ASX 200