ASX 200 tests primary support

The ASX 200 continues to flirt with primary support at 5650. Money Flow is still comfortably above zero, indicating strong support. But breach of 5650 would signal a primary down-trend, offering a target of 5000.

ASX 200

The two largest sectors are already in a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a decline with a target of 3100. Follow-through below 3400 would confirm.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks Index, in a down-trend since 2015, is currently testing long-term support at 7000. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure. Breach would offer a target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 miners tumble

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index broke support at 3500, signaling a primary decline with a target of 3100. A bearish sign for the broad ASX 200 index.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks Index is consolidating above primary support at 7000. Recovery above 7450 would indicate another bear rally but the primary trend is down and breach of 7000 would signal a decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 200 continues to display long tails and a bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow, signaling buying interest. Recovery above 5950 would suggest another advance but that is unlikely in the current climate. The primary trend is down and breach of primary support at 5650 would signal a decline with a target of 5000.

ASX 200

 

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 bullish divergence

The ASX 300 Banks Index respected primary support at 7000 but only recovery above 7450 would indicate another bear rally. Declining peaks on the Trend Index continue to warn of selling pressure. Breach of 7000 would signal a primary decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is again testing support at 3500. Breach would be a bearish sign for the broad ASX 200 index. Primary down-trends on the two biggest sectors would be likely to drag the overall index into a similar down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

On the ASX 200, a long tail and bullish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicate strong support. Recovery above 5950 would suggest another advance but that is unlikely in the current climate. Breach of primary support at 5650 would signal a primary down-trend with a target of 5000.

ASX 200

 

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold 40% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Banks threaten ASX 200 fall

The ASX 300 Banks Index is testing primary support at 7000. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Banks Index

Breach of 7000 would signal another primary decline with a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index continues to consolidate between 3500 and 4000. Breach of 3500 would be a bearish sign for the broad market ASX 200 index. Primary down-trends on its two biggest sectors would be likely to drag the overall index down.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

On the ASX 200, Twiggs Money Flow is holding above zero, suggesting light volume on the declines. Breach of primary support at 5650, however, would confirm a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Offering a target of 5000.

ASX 200

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

Bank & miners rally should lift ASX

The ASX 200 displays a cautious rally, with short candles reflecting an absence of buyer enthusiasm. But bullish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates longer-term confidence.

ASX 200 with Volume

The monthly chart shows similar rising troughs on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, reflecting buyer confidence. Recovery above 6000 would be bullish, suggesting another advance. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 5650.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks Index respected primary support at 7000, while bullish divergence on 13-week Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Expect a bear rally to test resistance at 8000. The primary trend, however, is down.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index is consolidating above 3400 but rising iron ore prices are likely to lift the index. Recovery above 3800 would signal another advance.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining Index

The All Ordinaries Gold Index again respected resistance at 5500 and another test of primary support at 4500 is likely. Breach would warn of a primary down-trend with a target of 3500.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

I remain cautious on Australian banks and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 support but bank decline continues

The ASX 200 continues to find support, with the latest large red candle and subsequent doji, testing primary support at 5650, accompanied by strong volume (indicated by red on the volume chart). Similar buying pressure (accumulation) is evident on 11th and 12th October.

ASX 200 with Volume

This is sometimes lost on the weekly chart but we can see Twiggs Money Flow troughs below have leveled out above the zero line, reflecting a mild bullish divergence (not as strong as rising Money Flow troughs but still a reflection of support). What is also evident on the daily chart (above) is how this week’s rally petered out, with shorter candles, awaiting further direction.

ASX 200

The ASX 300 Banks Index is testing primary support at 7000, the same level as its October 2009 peak. Declining peaks on the Trend Index warn of further weakness and breach of 7000 would offer a long-term target of 5000.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I have been cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, for a while, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX finds support

The ASX 200 found support around 5900, with a long tail indicating buying interest. Breakout of Twiggs Money Flow above the descending trendline would confirm. Breach of support at 5750 is unlikely but would warn of a primary down-trend.

ASX 200

Banks are weighing the index down, with the ASX 300 Banks index retracing to test resistance at its former primary support level of 7400. Respect would confirm another decline. Descending Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 correction

The ASX 200 broke support at 6120/6150, signaling a correction. Expect support at the rising long-term trendline at 6000. Penetration of the trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is faltering.

ASX 200

Banks lead the decline, with ASX 300 Banks index headed for a test of primary support at 7300. A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure. Breach of 7300 would signal another decline. Follow-through below 7000 would present a long-term target of 5000, the 2011 low.

ASX 300 Banks Index

I am cautious on Australian stocks, especially banks, and hold over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200: Correction to test 6000

The ASX 300 Banks index continues to test support at 7700. Declining Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would signal a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is also headed for a test of primary support, at 3400. A Trend Index peak at/below zero would warn of rising selling pressure and a primary down-trend.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

Commodities are already in a primary down-trend but Australian stocks are partially cushioned by a weakening Aussie Dollar.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

The ASX 200 found medium-term support at 6150 but this unlikely to hold. Bearish Divergence on the Trend Index warns of medium-term selling pressure. Expect a correction to test the rising long-term trendline at 6000.

ASX 200

I remain cautious on Australian stocks, holding over 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.

ASX 200 retreats

The two largest sectors in the ASX 200 are both retreating from recent highs.

The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index is testing support at 3750. Breach of support and the rising trendline would warn of a test of primary support at 3400.

ASX 300 Metals & Mining

The ASX 300 Banks index reversed below its short-term support level at 8000, warning of a test of primary support at 7300.

ASX 300 Banks Index

The banking sector faces the prospect of higher funding costs, falling credit growth and rising default risk and I remain cautious despite penetration of the descending trendline which suggests that a bottom is forming.

The ASX 200 retreated from resistance at 6300. Breach of short-term support at 6200 would warn of a correction.

ASX 200

The primary trend is upward but economic indicators warn of rising headwinds and a potential bear market. I remain cautious, with more than 30% cash in the Australian Growth portfolio.