A quick snapshot of the Australian economy from the latest RBA chart pack.
Disposable income growth has declined to almost zero and consumption is likely to follow. Else Savings will be depleted.
Residential building approvals are slowing, most noticeably in apartments, reflecting an oversupply.
Housing loan approvals for owner-occupiers are rising, fueled no doubt by State first home-buyer incentives. States do not want the party, especially the flow from stamp duties, to end. But loan approvals for investors are topping after an APRA crackdown on investor mortgages, especially interest-only loans.
The ratio of household debt to disposable income is precarious, and growing worse with each passing year.
House price growth continues at close to 10% a year, fueled by rising debt. When we refer to the “housing bubble” it is really a debt bubble driving housing prices. If debt growth slows so will housing prices.
Declining business investment, as a percentage of GDP, warns of slowing economic growth in the years ahead. It is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve productivity growth without continuous new investment and technology improvement.
Yet declining corporate bond spreads show no sign of increased lending risk.
Declining disposable income and consumption growth mean that voters are unlikely to be happy come next election. With each party trying to ride the populist wave, responsible economic management has taken a back seat. Throw in a housing bubble and declining business investment and the glass looks more than half-empty.
Every great cause begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.
~ Eric Hoffer
A quick snapshot from the latest RBA chart pack.
Manufacturing is holding its head above water (50 on the PMI chart) and industrial production shows a small upturn but investment growth is falling, as in many global economies including the US and Australia. Retail sales growth has declined but remains healthy at 10% a year.
Electricity generation continues to climb but steel, cement and plate glass production all warn that real estate and infrastructure development are slowing.
Interest rates remain accommodative.
Real estate price growth is slowing but remains an unhealthy 10% a year. Real estate development investment rallied in response to lower interest rates but is clearly in a long-term decline.
There are no signs of an economy in immediate trouble but there are indications that the real estate and infrastructure boom may be ending. Through a combination of fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy the Chinese have managed to stave off a capitalism-style correction. But failure to clear some of the excesses of the past decade will mean that the inevitable correction, when it does come, is likely to display familiar Asian severity (Japan 1992, Asian Crisis 1997).
Retail sales growth (excluding motor vehicles and parts) slowed to 2.4% over the 12 months to June 2017.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Seasonally adjusted light vehicle sales are also slowing.
Source: St Louis Fed & BEA
Seasonally adjusted private housing starts and new building permits are starting to lose momentum.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
The good news is that Manufacturer’s Durable Goods Orders (seasonally adjusted and ex Defense & Aircraft) are recovering.
Source: St Louis Fed & US Bureau of the Census
Cement and concrete production continues to trend upwards.
Source: US Fed
And estimated weekly hours worked (total nonfarm payroll * average weekly hours) is growing steadily.
Source: St Louis Fed & BLS
All of which suggest that business confidence is growing and consumer confidence is likely to follow. Bellwether transport stock Fedex advanced to 220, signaling rising economic activity in the broader economy.
Target: 180 + ( 180 – 120 ) = 240
The S&P 500 broke resistance at 2450, making a new high. Narrow consolidations and shallow corrections all signal investor confidence typical of the latter stages of a bull market. The immediate target is 2500* but further gains are likely.
Target: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2300 ) = 2500
The stock market remains an exceptionally efficient mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient.
~ Warren Buffett
Australian wage rate growth, on the other hand, is declining. is in a worse position, with a dramatic fall in investment following the mining boom.
Source: RBA & ABS
As is inflation.
Source: RBA & ABS
Growth in Household Disposable Income and Consumption.
Source: RBA & ABS
And Banks return on shareholders equity.
Source: RBA & APRA
But not Housing.
Source: RBA, ABS, APM, CoreLogic & Residex
At least not yet.
Falling house prices would complete the feedback loop, shrinking household incomes, consumption and banks ROE.
Falling wage rate growth suggests that we are headed for a period of low growth in employment and personal consumption.
The impact is already evident in the Retail sector.
The RBA would normally intervene to stimulate investment and employment but its hands are tied. Lowering interest rates would aggravate the housing bubble. Household debt is already precariously high in relation to disposable income.
Like Mister Micawber in David Copperfield, we are waiting in the hope that something turns up to rescue us from our predicament. It’s not a good situation to be in. If something bad turns up and the RBA is low on ammunition.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery. The blossom is blighted, the leaf is withered, the god of day goes down upon the dreary scene, and — and in short you are for ever floored….
~ Mr. Micawber in Charles Dickens’ David Copperfield
Philip Parker – veteran fund manager decides to sell all shares in Altair’s Trusts to hand back cash and hands back mandates for SMA/IMA’s and also sells MDA family office mandates to cash from shares.
AUSTRALIAN EAST COAST PROPERTY MARKET BUBBLE AND THE IMPENDING CORRECTION
CHINA PROPERTY AND DEBT ISSUES LATER THIS YEAR
THE OVERVALUED AUSTRALIAN EQUITY MARKETS AND
OVERSIZED GEO-POLITICAL RISKS AND AN UNPREDICTABLE US POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
The underlined above are some of the more obvious reasons to exit the riskier asset markets of shares and property – in my opinion.
As a result of the above and after 25 years as a fund manager and 30 years in this industry I am taking around 6 to 12 months off. The main reason is in my opinion that there are just too many risks at present, and I cannot justify charging our clients fees when there are so many early warning lead indicators of clear and present danger in property and equity markets now….
Read more at: Why we’re selling all shares and handing cash back to investors – Philip Parker | Livewire
A dip in the latest consumer price index (CPI) growth figures brings the inflation measure back in line with the Fed target of 2.0%. Inflationary pressures appear contained, easing Fed motivation to implement restrictive monetary policy.
Personal consumption continues to grow at a modest pace. The down-turn in expenditure on services would be cause for concern — this normally precedes a recession — if not for a strong rise in expenditure on durables.
Manufacturers new orders for capital goods display a similar recovery.
The housing recovery continues at a modest pace.
Construction spending as a percentage of GDP remains soft, suggesting that the recovery still has plenty of room for improvement.
Great slide from the NAB budget presentation:
The RBA is in a cleft stick:
- Raising interest rates would increase mortgage stress and threaten stability of the banking system.
- Lowering interest rates would aggravate the housing bubble, creating a bigger threat in years to come.
The underlying problem is record high household debt to income levels. Housing affordability is merely a symptom.
There are only two possible solutions:
- Raise incomes; or
- Reduce debt levels.
Both have negative consequences.
Raising incomes would primarily take place through higher inflation. This would generate more demand for debt to buy inflation-hedge assets, so would have to be linked to strong macroprudential (e.g. lower maximum LVRs for housing) to prevent this. A positive offshoot would be a weaker Dollar, strengthening local industry. The big negative would be the restrictive monetary policy needed to slow inflation when the job is done, with a likely recession.
Shrinking debt levels without raising interest rates is difficult but macroprudential policies would help. Also policies that penalize banks for offshore borrowings. The big negative would be falling housing prices as investors try to liquidate some of their investments and the consequent threat to banking stability. The slow-down in new construction would also threaten an economy-wide down-turn.
Of the two, I would favor the former option as having less risk. But there is a third option: wait in the hope that something will turn up. That is the line of least resistance and therefore the most likely course government will take.
Extract from the latest Financial Stability Review by the RBA:
….In Australia, vulnerabilities related to household debt and the housing market more generally have increased, though the nature of the risks differs across the country. Household indebtedness has continued to rise and some riskier types of borrowing, such as interest-only lending, remain prevalent. Investor activity and housing price growth have picked up strongly in Sydney and Melbourne. A large pipeline of new supply is weighing on apartment prices and rents in Brisbane, while housing market conditions remain weak in Perth. Nonetheless, indicators of household financial stress currently remain contained and low interest rates are supporting households’ ability to service their debt and build repayment buffers.
The Council of Financial Regulators (CFR) has been monitoring and evaluating the risks to household balance sheets, focusing in particular on interest-only and high loan-to-valuation lending, investor credit growth and lending standards. In an environment of heightened risks, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has recently taken additional supervisory measures to reinforce sound residential mortgage lending practices. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission has also announced further steps to ensure that interest-only loans are appropriate for borrowers’ circumstances and that remediation can be provided to borrowers who suffer financial distress as a consequence of past poor lending practices. The CFR will continue to monitor developments carefully and consider further measures if necessary.
Conditions in non-residential commercial property markets have continued to strengthen in Melbourne and Sydney, while in Brisbane and Perth high vacancy rates and declining rents remain a challenge. Vulnerabilities in other non-financial businesses generally appear low. Listed corporations’ profits are in line with their average of recent years and indicators of stress among businesses are well contained, with the exception of regions with large exposures to the mining sector. For many mining businesses conditions have improved as higher commodity prices have contributed to increased earnings, though the outlook for commodity prices remains uncertain.
Australian banks remain well placed to manage these various challenges. Profitability has moderated in recent years but remains high by international standards and asset performance is strong. Australian banks have continued to reduce exposures to low-return assets and are building more resilient liquidity structures, partly in response to regulatory requirements. Capital
ratios have risen substantially in recent years and are expected to increase further once APRA finalises its framework to ensure that banks are ‘unquestionably strong.’
Risks within the non-bank financial sector are manageable. At this stage, the shadow banking sector poses only limited risk to financial stability due to its small share of the financial system and minimal linkages with the regulated sector, though the regulators are monitoring this sector carefully. Similarly, financial stability risks stemming from the superannuation sector remain low.
While the insurance sector continues to face a range of challenges, profitability has increased of late and the sector remains well capitalised.
International regulatory efforts have continued to focus on core post-crisis reforms, such as addressing ‘too big to fail’, as well as new areas, such as the asset management industry and financial technology. While the goal of completing the Basel III reforms by end 2016 was not met, discussions are ongoing to try to finalise an agreement soon. Domestically, APRA is continuing its focus on the risk culture in prudentially regulated institutions and will review compensation policies and practices to ensure these are prudent.
Reading between the lines:
- household debt is too high
- apartments are in over-supply and prices are falling
- we have to maintain record-low interest rates to support the housing bubble
- APRA is “taking steps” to slow debt growth but also has to be careful not to upset the housing bubble
- the Basel committee has been dragging its feet on new regulatory guidelines and we cannot afford to wait any longer
Source: RBA Financial Stability Review PDF (2.4Mb)
From Elizabeth Knight:
The balance sheets of Australian households with a mortgage are dangerously exposed to any fall in house prices.
It isn’t just that household debt relative to disposable incomes has reached a record high of 189 per cent, it’s that households’ ability to service that debt is potentially a ticking time bomb…..
A recent Digital Finance Analytics survey found that of the 3.1 million mortgaged households, an estimated 669,000 are now experiencing mortgage stress.
“This is a 1.5 per cent rise from the previous month and maintains the trends we have observed in the past 12 months,” it found. “The rise can be traced to continued static incomes, rising costs of living, and more underemployment; whilst mortgage interest rates have risen thanks to out-of-cycle adjustments by the banks and bigger mortgages thanks to rising home prices.”
Source: Why we need to worry about the level of Australian household debt