Italy Fears Rattle World’s Investors – WSJ.com

Big investors felt comfortable owning big stakes of Italian debt in part because they knew they could sell without much difficulty. That has changed.

“It used to be one of the most liquid markets out there, but it isn’t anymore,” said Peter Schaffrik, head of European rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London. Not long ago, an investor had little problem buying or selling €500 million of Italian bonds at a clip, he said. “Now it’s difficult to trade more than €50 million.” The worsened trading conditions have led to more-exaggerated moves.

via Italy Fears Rattle World’s Investors – WSJ.com.

Liquidity is drying up in the Italian bond market, making it near impossible to roll-over maturing debt issues. The Italian bond market is third biggest in the world. If the EMU struggled to reach an accord over Greece, what chance do they have now?

Here’s One Reason the Euro Hasn’t Gotten Crushed. Yet. – WSJ

[Jens Nordvig at Nomura] estimates suggest that $100-125bn may have been repatriated by Eurozone equity portfolio investors in Aug-Oct.

This is an outsized figure, and may have helped avoid a much bigger decline in EURUSD since August.

Looking ahead, we are skeptical that this repatriation flow will continue to provide strong support for the Euro.

via Here’s One Reason the Euro Hasn’t Gotten Crushed. Yet. – MarketBeat – WSJ.

New Greek Premier Steps Into Spotlight – Bloomberg

Lucas Papademos, named today to be interim prime minister of Greece, steered the country into the euro region as central bank governor more than a decade ago. Now the former European Central Bank vice president will have to secure the country’s euro membership for a second time.

Papademos, who has never held elected office, helped foster economic growth rates that surpassed Germany’s and France’s in his eight years at Greece’s central bank before moving to the ECB in 2002.

via New Greek Premier Steps Into Spotlight – Bloomberg.

Watch Europe’s Bank Deposits, Not Its Political Moves – James Wood

People are now moving euro-denominated deposits out of Greece, Portugal and even Italy in protection against a possible exit of these countries from the European Monetary Union…….What is the effect of the movement of deposits? The banks losing their deposits will soon be facing a liquidity crisis. A publicly understood liquidity crisis leads to bank failures. In short, the focus on political considerations misses the looming problem of a liquidity crisis and bank failures.

via Watch Europe’s Bank Deposits, Not Its Political Moves – Seeking Alpha.

Aussie and Loonie hurt by dollar surge

The Aussie broke short-term support at $1.02, signaling a test of parity. The descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum “iceberg” warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of parity would indicate another visit to primary support at $0.94. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie “peeked” briefly above parity before retreating to test support at $0.975/0.980. Descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test $0.94; and failure of primary support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

Euro sinks, dragging sterling lower

EURUSD broke through $1.36 warning of another test of primary support at $1.32. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum confirms a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

GBPUSD is being dragged lower by the euro. Reversal below $1.60 warns of another test of primary support at $1.53 — as does 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line.  Failure of support would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Moody’s Downgrades South Africa

Moody’s rating agency changed its credit rating outlook from stable to negative for South Africa Wednesday, expressing concerns that politicians overseeing the continent’s largest economy won’t be able to stick to strict fiscal policies.

Moody’s has said it fears commitment to low budget deficits could be undermined by pressure from factions of the governing African National Congress party, its labor movement supporters and a population facing high rates of poverty and unemployment. The agency also said a debate driven by the party’s popular youth leader over whether mines should be nationalized is scaring investors.

via Moody’s Downgrades South Africa.

America and China must “crush” Germany into submission – Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Having followed the German political scene closely for the last five months, it is clear to me that almost the entire German political establishment is out of its depth, ideological, sometimes smug, apt to view the EMU debt-crisis as a Calvinist morality tale, and lacking in deep understanding of what it has got itself into.

One can understand German worries about money printing – and especially the loss of fiscal sovereignty and democratic control – but matters have already moved on. It is too late for that.

via America and China must crush Germany into submission – Telegraph Blogs.