Is the high Australian Dollar the real culprit?

Excellent comment from Loonyright at Macrobusiness.com.au on damage to Australian industry caused by the higher dollar:

Australia has been losing investment in research and manufacturing well prior to 2002. The volatility of our currency is of nothing compared to the static, elevated cost of doing business – all resulting from higher wages, unattractive taxation, and unattractive levels of regulation. We are a stable, well educated populace – this should be the ideal home of all kinds of investment. Instead we have slowly and steadily dug ourselves into an entitlement mindset out of proportion to our ability to fund it. If we truly want a competitive, diversified economy that is not reliant on commodity prices and low interest rates to drive activity via the property market, then our uncompetitive wages, taxation and regulation MUST be addressed. It is fantasy to think we can change our fortunes without changing these factors.

via Gotti canvasses the unthinkable | | MacroBusiness.

Income inequality: Cause of our predicament or a convenient scapegoat?

A reader reminded me of this 2011 Vanity Fair article, where Joseph Stiglitz argues that growing income inequality will harm future US economic growth.

“What matters, [some people] argue, is not how the pie is divided but the size of the pie. That argument is fundamentally wrong……..

First, growing inequality is the flip side of something else: shrinking opportunity. Whenever we diminish equality of opportunity, it means that we are not using some of our most valuable assets — our people — in the most productive way possible.

Second, many of the distortions that lead to inequality — such as those associated with monopoly power and preferential tax treatment for special interests — undermine the efficiency of the economy. This new inequality goes on to create new distortions, undermining efficiency even further. To give just one example, far too many of our most talented young people, seeing the astronomical rewards, have gone into finance rather than into fields that would lead to a more productive and healthy economy.

Third, and perhaps most important, a modern economy requires ‘collective action’ — it needs government to invest in infrastructure, education, and technology……. America has long suffered from an under-investment in infrastructure (look at the condition of our highways and bridges, our railroads and airports), in basic research, and in education at all levels. Further cutbacks in these areas lie ahead. None of this should come as a surprise—it is simply what happens when a society’s wealth distribution becomes lopsided. The more divided a society becomes in terms of wealth, the more reluctant the wealthy become to spend money on common needs.”

There are obvious flaws in Stiglitz’ argument. First, he equates income inequality with unequal opportunity. These are two different concepts. Michael Jordan might earn more income than me, but this does not necessarily indicate unequal opportunity. Even with the same opportunity I am unlikely to ever succeed as a basketball player. Equal opportunity is important in maximizing economic growth but will not achieve equal outcomes.

Distortions associated with monopoly power and unequal treatment of taxpayers both promote inefficiency. But we must be careful not to “put the cart before the horse.” Increasing taxes on the rich will not eliminate these distortions. We need to eliminate monopoly power and unequal treatment of taxpayers to promote greater economic efficiency — not greater income equality.

I have no argument against increased investment in infrastructure, education, and technology, but it is a stretch to blame under-investment in this area on the wealthy. There are a multitude of other interests, including defense and welfare, that have diverted funds away from investment in these areas. Economic growth benefits us all — the interests of the wealthy are generally aligned with those of their fellow citizens. In fact, as a group, top income earners benefit more from economic growth than any other group and are unlikely to act against their own self-interest.

No doubt there are interest groups who argue for lower taxes or favorable treatment of specific industries, just as there are interest groups that argue for increased welfare payments to retirees. What needs to be addressed — in the interests of greater economic efficiency and equity — is the amount of influence these interest groups exert over political decisions.

Economists often confuse arguments for greater efficiency with arguments for greater equity. Stiglitz tries to draw a line from greater equity to greater efficiency. Unfortunately most of the evidence points to the opposite. Societies, like the UK in the 1960s and 1970s and Sweden in the 1970s and 1980s, who focused on greater equity, ended up damaging economic efficiency and growth — harming the very people their policies were intended to help.

As Ross Gittins argues, we need to achieve both efficiency and equity. My suggestion is twofold. Start by designing a tax system based on efficiency, where we maximize economic output while minimizing costs of tax collection. This requires greater simplicity, removal of progressive tax rates, and elimination of favorable treatment for specific industries and/or voting blocs. Complexity increases costs as well as creating opportunities for tax avoidance.

When we have maximized tax revenues through increased output and efficient collection, we can then focus on equity when deciding how tax revenues are spent. Redressing the imbalances of income inequality is unachievable. Instead concentrate on ensuring equal opportunity for all. Long-run investment in education, additional support for disadvantaged students, increased spending on infrastructure, and on research will have payoffs in terms of economic efficiency. And an efficient economy will benefit everyone.

The “size of the pie” really does matter but how it is shared will also make a difference to future growth.

Are Australian banks adequately capitalized?

Basel III Capital Adequacy Ratios (CAR) will require banks to hold a minimum Total Capital of 8% against risk-weighted assets (RWA), the same as under Basel II, but with additional capital buffers of between 2.5% and 5.0% depending on credit market conditions. With an average ratio of 11.5% (September 2011), Australian banks are short of the maximum Basel III requirement of 13.0% for markets in a credit bubble.

The problem, however, lies not only with CAR but with the definition of risk-weighted assets. Under RWA, loans and investments are not taken at face value but adjusted for perceived risk. These adjustments vary widely between banks in different countries. US banks still apply Basel I risk-weightings:

  • zero for cash and government debt (OECD Sovereigns);
  • 20 percent for (OECD) banks;
  • 50 percent for mortgages;
  • 100 percent for corporates.

Their counterparts in Asia and Europe apply Basel II risk-weightings, with more lenient mortgage risk weights, averaging 15 percent and 14 percent respectively.

Australia’s 4 major banks similarly apply risk-weightings (supervised by APRA) for residential mortgages as low as 15%, with an average of 17%. That means the big four hold less than 2% capital against residential mortgages. Even after mortgage insurance, Deep T pointed out earlier this year, leverage is close to 50 times capital.

Basel III introduces a minimum 3% leverage ratio which ignores risk-weighting and compares Tier 1 capital to total exposure — total assets plus derivative exposure and off-balance sheet assets. But this is a catch-all and allows banks with high quality assets to continue leveraging at 33 times capital. Fed guidelines are more conservative, requiring a minimum leverage ratio of 4% (“adequately capitalized“) with a recommended 5% minimum for well-capitalized banks. The ratio, however, excludes off-balance-sheet assets. None of Australia’s four majors appear to meet the Fed’s requirement at September 2011 — ranging between 3.9% and 4.8% of Tier 1 capital to tangible assets.

With household debt at a historic high of 150% of disposable income, 3 times higher than in the early 1990s, Australia shows classic symptoms of a credit bubble and cannot afford to be complacent. There are three areas of the banking system that require attention. Capital adequacy ratios need to be lifted as well as risk-weightings for residential mortgages. Improving these two measures should enable Australia’s four major banks to achieve a minimum (Basel III) leverage ratio of 5%.

Sources:

Click to access bcbs189.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basel_III
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_requirement

Click to access wp1290.pdf

Click to access wp1225.pdf

Casualties of the externality

Click to access EY%20Reg%20Alert%20Basel%20III%20June%202012.pdf

British general warns against hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan – Washington Times

British Army Lt. Gen. Adrian Bradshaw, deputy commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, quoted by Kristina Wong of The Washington Times:

“This year, we’ve seen the enemy pushed further into the margins, away from the population centers. We’ve seen signs of pressure in our intelligence reporting, of shortages of finance and equipment,” he said.

“We’ve seen their leadership now showing divisions at the middle levels and at the high levels, concluding that they’re not going to achieve their aims by military means alone,” he said.

“Now, the enemy will continue to throw challenges at us; of course, he will. But he knows he cannot achieve his political aims now through military means. So this is the time to hold our resolve.”

via British general warns against hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan – Washington Times.

How Obama and Biden Buried the Middle Class

By EDWARD MORRISSEY

Is this a political inconvenient truth? Has the middle class been “buried” the last four years? By any measure, the middle class has certainly lost ground. Median household income has declined each of the last four years, a decline which has accelerated during the Obama “recovery” that started in June 2009. Median household income dropped 2.6 percent during the Great Recession, but has dropped 4.8 percent in the three years since.

via How Obama and Biden Buried the Middle Class.

Gold, TIPS and inflation

The Dollar Index rally to test resistance at 81.00/81.50 appears to be faltering. Respect of resistance would confirm the primary down-trend. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero earlier indicated a trend change; a peak below zero would strengthen the signal.

US Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 81 – ( 84 – 81 ) = 78

Spot Gold continues to test resistance at $1800 per ounce*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a primary up-trend, while breakout above $1800 would confirm.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1650 + ( 1650 – 1500 ) = 1800

Rising gold prices indicate increased inflation expectations. The spread between 10-year Treasury yields and the equivalent TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) yield also spiked up after the latest QE announcement but then retreated. The inflation effect of quantitative easing by the Fed is likely to be muted by deflationary pressures from private debt contraction — and a slow-down in government debt expansion after November (no matter who wins the election) — working in the opposite direction. I believe the Fed goal is to manufacture a soft landing rather than to generate inflation, which would go against their mandate.

10-Year Treasury Yield v. 10-Year TIPS Yield

Commodities: The RJ/CRB Commodities index has been delisted by ICE Futures US (formerly NYBOT). For details click here.

The equivalent DJ-UBS Commodity Index is testing resistance at 150/155. Respect would warn of another test of primary support at 125, but also that inflation expectations remain muted.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Brent Crude is correcting despite the rise in inflation expectations, reflecting slowing economic activity rather than improved security. Follow-through below $108 per barrel would indicate a correction to $100, while reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would suggest a primary down-trend.

ICE Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

RJ-CRB Commodities Index delisted

Intercontinental Exchange announced that ICE Futures US (formerly NYBOT) will cease listing any new expiration months in the RJ-CRB Index and Continuous Commodity Index (“CCI”) Futures Contracts, and is delisting all expiration months in RJ-CRB Index Futures Contracts as of the open of business on September 26, 2012.

Reasons given in their submission to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission were “…..the low volume transacted year to date, as well as historically, which evinced a lack of trader interest in the products.”

Available alternatives are:

  • US Commodity Index Fund which tracks the SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Index Total Return℠;
  • S&P World Commodity Index ($SWSP); and
  • Dow Jones/UBS (formerly “DJ-AIG”) Commodity Index ($DUBS).

Of the three I prefer $DUBS, though $USCI is also a fairly close match.

Alternatives to CRB Commodities Index

WSJ big interview with Sheila Bair

Former FDIC chairman Sheila Bair favors breaking up the big banks. She also discusses her differences with Tim Geithner during the GFC and how the Treasury Secretary skewed the banking bailout to favor Citigroup.

Click image to play video

Click image to play video.

Hat tip to Barry Ritholz.