Interest rates are rising, driving gold lower. Long-term Treasury yields are heading for a test of resistance at 2.0 percent but a lot depends on continued stability in financial markets.
The Chinese Yuan continues its devaluation against the Dollar. Any sharp movements would spur global instability and increase demand for gold. But at present Dollar appreciation proceeds at a measured pace.
Selling pressure on gold has increased, reflected by the steep fall of Twiggs Money Flow on the SPDR Gold [GLD] ETF. A larger (TMF) peak near zero would warn of a long-term sell-off.
Spot gold has paused in its descent, with a short candle on the weekly chart reflecting short-term support at $1250/ounce, but expect a test of primary support at $1200.
A long-term monthly chart of gold reflects the importance of support at $1200. The high of 2009, the lows of 2013, and the recent lows in April and June, all reinforce strength at $1200. Breach of this level would signal a long-term down-trend.
The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index retraced to test resistance at 4500 after the recent breakout. Respect is likely and would signal decline to 4000.
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