Odds of a BREXIT are drifting at the bookmakers, with REMAIN a firm 1 to 4 favorite. Fears of a BREXIT have been driving demand for gold and a REMAIN vote is likely to spur a sell-off.
* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1050 ) = 1550
Breakout above resistance at $1300/ounce turned into a bull trap with a sharp retreat to support at $1250/$1260. A REMAIN vote on June 23rd would test support at $1250 and possibly $1200. But the up-trend remains intact if support at $1200 holds.
Political uncertainty is unlikely to fade before the November US election. And economic uncertainty, fueled by Chinese instability, is likely to last a lot longer.
Capital outflows from China continue, with USDCNY running into resistance at 6.60. This is a sign that PBOC sale of foreign reserves has resumed, weakening the Dollar and boosting demand for Gold.
Gold’s up-trend is likely to continue. And breakout above $1300 would offer a long-term target of $1550/ounce*.
Disclosure: Our Australian managed portfolios are invested in gold stocks.
Gold may profit either way the vote goes as global lack of confidence in Governments grow. Britexit could cause a spike that levels off on temporary down pressure on the pound and signal the failing Euro might be under more pressure. It may signal Euro countries to leave next which they might do anyways. The Exit may be fast with a pull back a non exit may cause a temp fall or even create a low this year or early next and then begin to rise. Just FWIW