US GDP: Where is it headed?

I originally got this from Matt Busigin (I think). Average Hourly Earnings multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private: Nonfarm) gives a pretty good indication of where GDP is headed, well ahead of the BEA accounts.

Nominal GDP compared to Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees (Total Private) multiplied by Average Weekly Hours (Total Private Nonfarm)

Remember this is nominal GDP, so the latest (April 2015) figure of 4.38% would need to be adjusted for inflation. Inflation is somewhere between 0.5% and 1.75% depending on how you measure it. The GDP deflator looks like it will come in below 1.0% which would leave us with real GDP of at least 3.38% p.a.

GDP Price Deflator compared to Core CPI

3 Replies to “US GDP: Where is it headed?”

    1. Yes. Average weekly earnings (Total Private) reported Monthly, but “Monthly” seems to introduce some distortion as can be seen from the NSA (not seasonally adjusted) data plotted in brown on the graph below.

      Average weekly earnings (Total Private) reported Monthly

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