What is just as important is that ….. the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: “Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It’s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.”
2 Replies to “How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge”
Comments are closed.
Hi Coiln
I still can’t see anything other than hard landing. Whe you talk QE and inflation we are talking claytons inflation, which immediately screws the real world. He or she is already screwed. And we already have didly squat yields?? So as Bill Gross points out an inlfation rate stiffling growth while running at rate higher than bond yeilds – thats a rock and a hard place brought about by men who thought their logic and rational thinking could overcome anything including moral harzard. I say Bernanke and Trichet are financial pimps. Yes not nice but neither is arrogance in the face of common sense. I don’t believe tinkering with economic management will achieve anything now. The west boomed excessively welcome to the bust and that includes GOLD! Unless you want to be the last man up the GOLD pyramid when it goes (has gone) parabolic because everyone is looking for economic salvation.
Still enjoy your posts.. Informative
Cheers
Michael
Right on Col….but the true test cometh over the christmas season, it’s nearly always record sales and I suspect the same will occur this year. Certainly the rich are spending at Tiffanys and people still love their iStuff more than food, strange but true. A QE 2.5 is almost an expectation now, if not delivered the markets will crash, Bernake has unfortunately set himself up for fall. Higher inflation through QE 2.5 will result in high oil resulting in 2012 recession, no QE 2.5 and recession now eased by a christmas boom. However the easy option is always to delay and fiddle with economics true keynesian philosophy, otherwise they have no job to do. If only governments could understand balanced budgets = balanced fair society & real fair prices for goods and assets.